航空交通网络应急优化调控理论与方法研究

With the increment of emergency such as extreme weather and traffic control, air congestion and flight delay continuously deteriorate, resulting in the high risk and low efficiency of air transportation system. It becomes an urgent need to improve the emergency response ability of air transportation operation. Air transportation system is a complex giant system in which the traffic flow and structure are closely coupled. Cascading effects induced by emergency events will easily break out, leading to widespread air traffic congestion and large-scale flight delay. The traditional local control method and optimization mechanism can’t meet the demand of emergency-oriented air transportation network regulation. This project will build an integrative framework: firstly, we will set up a complete database of Chinese air transportation network, propose traffic dynamics model in temporal networks, and excavate the critical point and key factor which cause the cascading effect; next we will build the exact forecast model of cascading effects to conquer the challenge of how to precisely locate the cascading range affected by emergency events; then we design the robust optimization model for flight flow regulation based on analyzing of fluctuation of airport capacity. We will also develop the simulation and verification system, which can provide Air Traffic Management Bureau with solid theoretical foundation and decision-aid system. It will find theoretic and practical applications in the era of burgeoning air transportation.

随着恶劣天气、交通管制等突发事件频发，近年来航班延误与航空拥堵情况持续恶化，迫切需要提高航空交通系统运行的应急调控能力。航空交通网络应急优化调控是一个时效性和鲁棒性要求严苛的大规模工程优化问题，现有方法难以在满足应急调控时效性前提下获得较为鲁棒的调控方案。本项目遵循“交通运行特性分析-->级联范围精准预测-->高效鲁棒优化方法设计”的总体研究思路，提出系统的解决方案：首先建立完备的中国航空交通网络数据库，提出针对突发事件的权时变网络交通动力学模型，挖掘易导致级联效应的关键机场；其次建立中国航空交通网络的因果关联矩阵，基于半马尔科夫过程精准预测级联范围；然后分析不确定性因素干扰下机场容量的波动特征，建立飞行流量应急调控的鲁棒对等模型并求解；在此基础上开发综合仿真验证系统，为空管部门提供可靠的理论基础与辅助决策工具。在航空运输业迅猛发展的背景下，本项目的研究具有重要的理论意义和实际应用价值。

随着恶劣天气、交通管制等突发事件频发，近年来航班延误与航空拥堵情况持续恶化，迫切需要提高航空交通系统运行的应急调控能力。航空交通网络应急优化调控是一个时效性和鲁棒性要求严苛的大规模工程优化问题，现有方法难以在满足应急调控时效性前提下获得较为鲁棒的调控方案。.本项目首先建立了完备的中国航空交通网络数据库，突破了针对突发事件的权时变网络交通动力学建模技术，挖掘出了易导致级联效应的关键机场；建立了中国航空交通网络的因果关联矩阵，解决了基于半马尔科夫过程精准预测了级联范围的难题；然后通过分析不确定性因素干扰下机场容量的波动特征，建立了飞行流量应急调控的鲁棒对等模型并求解，攻克了航空交通网络应急优化调控这个极具挑战性的工程优化难题；在此基础上开发了综合仿真验证系统，为空管部门提供了可靠的理论基础与辅助决策工具。.上述技术突破和理论创新以下列成果形式体现：在国内外重要学术期刊和学术会议上发表/录用SCI 检索期刊文章15篇、EI 检索会议论文6篇，申请国家发明专利19项。以上述研究成果作为重要支撑，项目负责人杜文博获2018年中国青年科技奖、2017年教育部自然科学一等奖、2017年中国航空学会青年科技奖，并获得国家优秀青年科学基金项目资助。