不确定性条件下分布式供能系统优化配置研究

Design planning is of great importance for the success of a distributed energy system project, which is usually a kind of multi-input and multi-output complex energy system. Optimal planning of such a complex system under various uncertainties, which are distinguished by source, type, size and nature, poses significant challenges in terms of decision-making process. Firstly, with the guidance of developing theories of Stochastic Programming, Fuzzy programming, Robust optimization, Intervals Programming and Decision Method, optimal planning models of distributed energy system under uncertainties are developed, then the corresponding computational methods are designed. Secondly, the applicabilities, advantages and disadvantages of all the developed models are systematically analyzed and compared. Finally, the influences of uncertainties on the optimal planning are investigated, handling principles for multiple uncertain factors are studied. Comprehensive methods and rules will be made to mitigate the risk of decision-making process for distributed energy system planning under uncertainties. Applications of the planning theories of uncertainty will also be promoted.

分布式供能系统是一种多输入、多输出的复杂能源系统，系统配置好坏决定系统成败。由于存在大量来源、种类、大小、性质各不相同的不确定性因素，基于数学规划的分布式供能系统优化配置决策过程通常存在极大的风险。项目首先以随机规划、模糊规划、鲁棒优化、区间数规划、决策方法理论为指导，在正确表征各类不确定性因素的基础上，构建不确定性条件下的分布式供能系统优化配置模型体系，发展高效的算法框架；其次，系统性地对比分析各种不确定性优化模型针对不同不确定性因素的适用性和优劣势；最后，探讨各种不确定性因素对分布式供能系统优化配置的影响规律，提出在实际决策环境中针对多种及多重不确定性因素时的方案设计准则。本研究将为有效管控分布式供能系统项目在复杂不确定性条件下的实施风险提供全面的方法体系和决策依据，并促进不确定规划理论的应用发展。

分布式供能系统是一种多输入、多输出的复杂能源系统，系统配置好坏决定系统成败。由于存在大量来源、种类、大小、性质各不相同的不确定性因素，基于数学规划的分布式供能系统优化配置决策过程通常存在极大的风险。项目首先以随机规划、模糊规划、鲁棒优化、区间数规划、决策方法理论为指导，在正确表征各类不确定性因素的基础上，构建了不确定性条件下的分布式供能系统优化配置模型体系。其次，对比分析了各种不确定性优化模型针对不同不确定性因素的适用性和优劣势。最后，探讨了各种不确定性因素对分布式供能系统优化配置的影响规律，提出了在实际决策环境中针对多种及多重不确定性因素时的方案设计准则。本研究为有效管控分布式供能系统项目在复杂不确定性条件下的实施风险提供了方法体系和决策依据。