基础养老保险缴费率一元化及适度水平研究

The unification of optimum Premium Rate of Pension Insurance is the important factor to resolve payment differences so as to realize the balance of payments in the pension insurance, and also be the key problems for the National coordination which need to be resolved imminently. The research, which sets up the long-term target on the unification of premium of pension insurance and its proper level under the background of population aging, study on the theoretical framework of pension insurance expending gradually from differentiation to the unification, medium-and long-term tolerance during the payments, finance balancing of payment and supply, the implementation phase and the redistribution effect of the unification of premium rate and base pay become ternary, suitability test and relative counter measures of premium rate and so on. The mathematical model of unification of premium rate of pension insurance, which focuses on Aging Coefficient and Survival Coefficient, is proposed innovatively as research method. The research focus on pension contribution and intergenerational demand linkage, the pension contribution rate and labor factors of production distribution coefficient linkage, the contribution rate of pension insurance linkage with the Aging coefficient and survival coefficient, as well as compliance with the dependency ratio, the substitution rate, coverage and other elements, which provide the theory and practice for realizing the medium and long-term balance of the balance of supply and demand in pension insurance and improving the national endowment insurance system of urban and rural coordination.

养老保险缴费率一元化及适度水平，是解决缴费差异化进而实现养老保险收支平衡的重要因素，也是全国统筹中急需解决的关键问题。本课题从人口老龄化背景下养老保险缴费率一元化及其适度水平长远目标出发，研究养老保险缴费从差异化逐步过渡到一元化的理论框架，以及缴费中长期承受力，缴费与给付的资金平衡，缴费率一元化以及缴费基数三元化实施阶段和收入再分配效应，缴费率适度性检验及其相关对策等。研究方法创新提出以老年人口系数和生存系数为主因素的养老保险一元化缴费率数理模型，并重点研究养老保险缴费供给能力与代际需求联动，养老保险缴费率与劳动生产要素分配系数联动，养老保险缴费率与老年人口系数和生存系数联动，以及与抚养比、遵缴率、替代率、覆盖率等要素联动，为实现养老保险供求中长期平衡，为完善全国城乡统筹养老保险体系提供理论和实践方案。

现行基础养老保险缴费率处于多元化状态，城镇职工基础养老保险缴费率为20%，个体户缴费率为12%，城乡居民不缴费。课题以基础养老保险缴费率多元化为现实背景，以缴费适度水平为主线，研究基础养老保险缴费率一元化标准、路径及实现机制，对推进养老保险全国统筹和确定供给侧结构改革降费标准具有重要理论价值和科学意义。.课题研究框架：1.创新提出国民财富人口结构收入分配理论，基础养老保险缴费适度水平理论等；2.创新构建基础养老保险缴费适度水平核心模型，模拟测算城镇职工和城乡居民基础养老保险长期均衡适度缴费率分别为14.47%和14.26%，确定基础养老保险缴费率一元化适度标准为15%，城镇职工缴费基数为社会平均工资，个体灵活就业人员缴费基数以社会平均工资60%起步，城乡居民缴费基数以人均纯收入60%起步；3.提出经济发展契合程度、福利最大化、代际交叠收入均衡和缴费与给付均衡的缴费适度水平合理性检验标准；4.利用人口老龄化、二元劳动福利差等指标发展趋势，设定“二阶段”调整路径，城镇职工和个体灵活就业人员基础养老保险缴费率在2035年收敛至一元化标准15%，城乡居民基础养老保险缴费率在2050年达到一元化标准15%；5.发现缴费膨胀系数是制约城镇职工基础养老保险降费空间的核心因素，城镇职工基础养老保险适度缴费率约为15%，缴费膨胀系数约为4%，缩减缴费膨胀系数可实现缴费率从20%向15%适度收敛；6.创新提出缴费率调整与缴费膨胀减缩系数联动、缴费收入剩余与低保补贴联动、缴费膨胀系数与产业结构合理升级联动、缴费率调整与夯实缴费基数联动的一元化适度水平“四联动”实现机制；7.构建养老保险替代率剩余财政补贴适度水平模型，测算出基础养老保险缴费率一元化财政补贴适度水平，验证财政补贴适度水平与财政补贴需求的供需平衡关系；8.检验基础养老保险缴费率一元化的经济增长、福利改进和收入再分配效应；9.提出合理规划“一元化三基数”促进养老保险全国统筹、依据缴费适度水平确定供给侧改革降费率标准等对策建议。