考虑时间动态性的建筑工程环境影响评价模型与优化策略研究

In the environmental impact assessment and management of buildings, quantifying the temporal variations and related influences during the long life cycles could make contributions to reach more realistic assessment results, improve buildings’ environmental performance, and promote sustainable development. Dynamic LCA (life cycle assessment), incorporating temporal variations into assessment, has been a research hotspot in recent years. However, there are very limited in-depth and systematic studies. This proposed research aims to develop an operational dynamic LCA system for buildings, and put forward effective optimization strategies. (1) Four types of dynamic assessment elements (dynamic consumption, dynamic basic inventory datasets, dynamic characterization factors, and dynamic weighting factors) are formalized by examining the standard calculation steps to systematically represent the temporal variations. And specific elements are identified according to cut-off criteria. (2) Simulation, deep learning, and other methods are adopted to quantify the dynamic consumptions in different life cycle phases. (3) The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System is taken to simulate the temporal variations of energy structure, and of consumption and emissions due to major building materials’ production and manufacture. And then dynamic basic inventory datasets are calculated with a mature static inventory database as base. (4) Drawing mature dynamic characterization models and parameters from wide literatures by meta-analysis to quantify the temporal variations of characterization factors. (5) Developing dynamic weighting factors with emission targets and resource planning in different future periods using the distance-to-target approach. (6) The four types of dynamic assessment elements and their quantification models are incorporated to develop a DLCA system for buildings. A digital twin model is then established to conduct simulation and put forward a series of effective optimization strategies. This research effectively incorporates temporal variations into environmental impact assessment and improvement. It is of theoretical value for further expanding LCA system, and of practical reference value for improving the effectiveness of building environmental performance management and decision-making.

在建筑环境影响评价与管理中，考虑长生命周期特征有关的动态性及影响，对提升评价准确性、推进可持续发展具有重要意义。但当前动态生命周期评价（LCA）研究较为零散，系统、全面的研究还很缺乏。课题旨在构建建筑环境影响动态评价系统，并提出科学有效的优化策略。包括：基于LCA标准流程系统提取四类动态评价要素表征动态性，并设置取舍准则细化要素构成；采用模拟仿真、深度学习等方法构建分阶段动态消耗量评估模型；模拟能源结构以及主要建筑材料生产相关动态变化，构建动态基础清单数据集；通过荟萃分析汲取成熟的动态特征化模型及参数，评估特征化因子动态性；基于目标距离法，结合分时段政策指标构建动态权重因子；融合上述四类评价要素构建动态评价系统，并基于数字孪生技术开展环境影响模拟与优化研究。课题将时间动态性有机融入评价与优化，对LCA体系的深化拓展具有理论价值，对提升建筑环境管理和决策的有效性、推进可持续发展具有实践价值。

在建筑环境影响评价与管理中，考虑长生命周期特征有关的动态性及影响，对提升评价准确性、推进可持续发展具有重要意义。针对动态生命周期评价（LCA）开展系统全面的专门研究具有重要的价值意义。课题构建了建筑环境影响动态评价系统，并在实践应用中提出科学有效的优化策略建议。本课题完成的研究内容包括：基于LCA标准流程系统提取了四类动态评价要素（动态消耗量、动态基础清单数据、动态特征化因子和动态权重因子）表征动态性，并设置三类取舍准则细化要素构成；采用模拟仿真、深度学习等方法构建了全生命周期各阶段（材料开采与生产阶段、施工安装阶段、运营阶段、维护阶段和拆除处置阶段）的动态消耗量评估模型；模拟能源结构相关动态变化，构建了动态基础清单数据集；通过荟萃分析汲取了成熟的动态特征化模型及参数，评估特征化因子动态性；基于目标距离法，结合分时段政策指标构建了生态破坏类和资源耗竭类动态权重系统；融合上述四类评价要素构建了建筑动态环境影响评价系统，并结合建筑信息模型等数字建模技术开展环境影响模拟仿真与优化研究；集成多智能体仿真方法对气候环境参数、建筑系统设计参数和使用人行为参数进行多情景仿真，提出住宅建筑节能优化建议；采用系统动力学方法模拟企业节能文化和办公能耗，为办公建筑节能提出有针对性的建议。课题将时间动态性有机融入评价与优化，对LCA体系的深化拓展具有理论价值，对提升建筑环境管理和决策的有效性、推进可持续发展具有实践价值。