城市居住区规划碳足迹评估方法与实证研究

The evaluation and planning of low carbon community is a hot focus at home and abroad. As the basis of the planning and management of low-carbon community, the carbon footprint assessment methods and empirical research are relatively weak. Closely linked to demand for urban planning and international forefront, the carbon cycle of urban community is studied, and the theoretical framework of its carbon footprint calculation is established, which draws lessons from material flow, energy flow and life cycle assessment. Selecting the 173 communities of Guangzhou as the research objects, their carbon emissions characteristics and key factors are studied, which adopt home survey, OD data, household energy & water consumption online monitoring, field survey and other means. Based on the emission factor method and list method, the sub-sectors (buildings, transportation, municipal, and green space) establish the prediction model of the carbon footprint. Carbon footprint assessment methods and models software will be developed for the community planning program, and empirical research will be carried out in Guangzhou. The study goals are as follows. In the theory, it will explore the characteristics of the urban residential area carbon cycle and its impact mechanisms. In the practice, it will contribute to the community planning program and determine the emission reduction targets and examining measures to reduce emissions, which will promote the goals of low-carbon community from the planning source.

低碳居住区评价与规划是国内外研究热点领域，碳足迹评估作为低碳居住区规划和管理的基础和衡量标准，相关评估方法与实证研究较为薄弱。本研究紧扣城市规划需求与国际前沿，借鉴物质流、能量流和生命周期评价等分析方法，分析城市居住区系统碳循环过程，建立城市居住区碳足迹测算理论框架。在此基础上，选择广州主城区173居住区为研究对象，采取入户调查、交通OD数据、家庭能耗－水耗在线监测、野外样方监测等手段，开展城市居住区碳排放特征和关键影响因素辨识研究，基于排放因子法和清单法，分部门（建筑、交通、市政和绿地）建立碳足迹预测模型，开发基于居住区规划方案的碳足迹评估方法和模型软件，并在广州开展实证研究。其目标是：理论上探索城市居住区系统碳循环特征及其影响机制，实践上有助于居住区规划方案的比选和优化，科学确定减排指标和审视减排措施，从规划源头促进低碳居住区目标实现。

本研究紧扣城市规划需求与国际前沿，借鉴物质流、能量流和生命周期评价等分析方法，分析城市居住区系统碳循环过程，建立城市居住区碳足迹测算理论框架。在此基础上，选择广州主城区173居住区为研究对象，采取入户调查、交通 OD数据、家庭能耗－水耗在线监测、野外样方监测等手段，开展城市居住区碳排放特征和关键影响因素辨识研究，基于排放因子法和清单法，分部门（建筑、交通、市政和绿地）建立碳足迹预测模型，开发基于居住区规划方案的碳足迹评估方法和模型软件，并在广州开展实证研究。.分析结果表明，广州社区住宅建筑、交通、物质生活及垃圾处理人均总碳排放为2785.6 kg/年•人，四个部门所占比例分别为60%、18%、17%和4%。在区位、建筑年代的分类体系下，以规划可控因素作为自变量，碳排放量作为因变量建立分段模型，效果较好，可作为碳排放评估软件设计的基础。最后，基于规划可控因素与社区碳排放的模型关系，进行广州居住社区碳排放评估软件的设计。软件对社区碳排放模拟精度总体较好，部分社区类型的碳排放预测精度较低，原因包括样本局限引起的模型精度问题、交通碳排放的空间影响因素的选择局限问题等，也包括实际和模型中涉及的部分因变量有所变化。总的来说，该软件可用于居住社区规划的碳排放评估，一定程度上为城市规划师提供方案比选参考。