劳动禀赋时空异质性变化下我国种植业结构调整问题研究

Under the background of the increasing flow of rural labor force, the variety structure and spatial structure differentiation of crop production in China is becoming more and more serious. What is the theoretical logic behind the changes in the farming structure? What trends are reflected in the development of the future crop farming? The farming structure adjustments may be related to the changes in labor endowments and their regional heterogeneous, as well as the capacity of factor substitution. The study will build an analytical framework, which is considered with the characteristics of labor endowment and the difficulty of factor substitution, will be built based on the theory of induced innovation. To reveal the mechanism change of labor transfer and labor endowment regional differences in adjustment of planting structure, summarizes the spatial adjustment of farming structure evolution, provides a judgment for the planting to form as well as the evolution of regional specialization of agricultural production the trend. The result is conducive to promote rational and orderly flow of rural surplus labor force, is conducive to the promotion of the main agricultural products to the most suitable areas to achieve reasonable and effective allocation of resources, and is conducive to help the government strengthen the formulation and implementation of agricultural resource integration and coordination of supporting policies, further promote the deepening of agricultural supply side structural reform.

在农村劳动力流动不断加剧背景下，我国种植业生产品种结构和空间结构分化现象日趋严重。种植结构的这些变化，其背后隐藏的理论逻辑是什么？反映了未来种植业发展变化的哪些趋势？我们认为，种植结构分化可能和劳动禀赋及其区域异质性动态变化以及作物生产要素替代能力有关。本研究以诱致性技术变迁理论为基础，构建考虑劳动禀赋时空变化特点和要素替代难易程度的农作物品种生产规律变化的分析框架。旨在揭示劳动力转移及劳动禀赋区域差异变化对种植结构调整的作用机制，总结种植结构调整的时空演变规律，为种植业未来发展演变以及作物生产区域专业化趋势的形成提供一种判断。研究结论可能有利于促进农村剩余劳动力合理、有序流动，有利于促进主要农产品生产向最适宜地区集聚，实现资源合理、有效配置，有利于政府强化涉农资源整合和协调配套政策的制定和实施，推进农业供给侧结构性改革的进一步深化。

21世纪以来，劳动力价格加速上涨，诱使数以亿计的农村劳动力转移至城市工业部门从事非农生产活动，农业劳动供给短缺变化已成为当前农业生产面临的主要矛盾和挑战。本课题认为，种植结构分化可能和劳动禀赋及其区域异质性动态变化以及作物生产要素替代能力有关。技术进步的目的在于降低成本或创造更大收益，面对劳动力刚性约束增强，农户直接的应对逻辑是借助市场机制调节要素投入结构，通过相对丰裕、廉价的机械要素替代劳动.力，促使生产方式向节约劳动力的技术方向转变。但机械替代并非是缓解劳动力刚性约束的唯一途径，通过重视结构调整、选用改良品种或新型肥料来提升农业生产的标准化程度，同样有助于直接或间接替代劳动。由于劳动力和土地为互补性的生产要素，通过提升土地生产率从而提高单位面积收益，也有助于缓解劳动力成本上涨的冲击。本课题也揭示劳动力转移及劳动禀赋区域差异变化对种植结构调整的作用机制，总结种植结构调整的时空演变规律，为种植业未来发展演变以及作物生产区域专业化趋势的形成提供一种判断。研究结论有利于政府强化涉农资源整合和协调配套政策的制定和实施，推进农业供给侧结构性改革的进一步深化。