变化环境下耦合大气-陆面水文过程模拟与需水预测系统动力学建模的供需平衡分析

Climate change and human activities have an impact on the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources in the future. Coupled with the synergy of economic development, population growth and urbanization, the contradiction between water supply and water demand has become more and more serious. Water resources problem has become a major bottleneck restricting the sustainable development linking society and economy. Considering the changes in the natural and social environments, how to couple the future water supply and water demand together and carry out the water balance analysis is a key scientific issue to be solved urgently. Previous researches did not fully consider the streamflow variation and the changes in rainfall-runoff relationship in the future, and also did not fully consider the connection and feedback among the subsystems in the water-demand system. Therefore, the kernel of this study is to model the atmosphere-land surface hydrological process under the condition of the environment change and carry out the water demand forecasting based on the system dynamics method. Spatio-temporal evolution pattern of watershed hydrological cycle will be investigated considering the changes in nature and society. Potential evolution trend of the future runoff in the multi-dimensional time and space scales will be estimated. The water demand forecasting model will be established, which reflects interactive feedback of each water sector. The dynamic evolution of water demand in each sector will be revealed. The spatial and temporal coupled pattern of water availability and water demand for each sector will be explored. The water supply and demand plan which suits for different target year will be put forward. The dynamic balance rule and the mechanism of compensation of water supply and demand in a given basin will be revealed.

气候变化和人类活动影响了未来水资源的时空分布，加之受经济发展、人口增长、城市化进程的协同作用，水资源供需矛盾日益突出，水问题已成为制约社会经济可持续发展的重要瓶颈。如何在自然-社会变化环境下，耦合未来径流量与需水量，开展区域水资源系统供需平衡分析是亟待解决的关键科学问题。以往研究，在径流模拟中未充分考虑未来来水情势以及降雨-径流关系的变化，在需水系统中为未充分考虑子系统之间的联系与反馈。为此，研究以变化环境下大气-陆面水文过程的模拟和需水预测系统动力学建模为核心，解析自然-社会变化环境下流域水循环过程的时空演化格局，评估流域未来径流总量在多维时空尺度下的可能演变趋势，构建反映各用水部门交互反馈作用的需水预测模型，揭示各用水部门需水量的动态演化规律，探究径流可利用量及各部门需水量在时空尺度的耦合模式，提出面向不同规划水平年的供需水方案，揭示流域供水需水的动态平衡规律和效用补偿机制。

受经济发展、人口增长、城市化进程协同作用，气候变化和人类活动影响了未来水资源的时空分布，水资源供需矛盾日益突出，水问题已成为制约社会经济可持续发展的重要瓶颈，“变化环境下耦合大气‐陆面水文过程模拟与需水预测的水资源供需平衡研究”是国际学术前沿，也是我国可持续发展过程中面临的极富挑战性的关键科学问题之一。为此，围绕变化环境下径流模拟和需水预测等关键科学与技术问题，开展了气候变化条件下流域水文循环响应研究，预测了不同气候情境下流域最高气温、最低气温和降雨的未来演化趋势，解析了气候变化和人类活动影响下流域水循环过程的时空演化格局，建立了面向变化环境的多种集总式和分布式水文模型，评估了流域未来径流总量在多维时空尺度下的可能演变态势，探明了水文循环过程对气候变化的响应机理；进一步，引入社会水文学概念，提出了耦合社会-水文多因素的生活需水系统动力学建模方法，建立了人类活动影响下多因子工业需水系统动力学预测模型，提出了气候变化下基于用水机理预测法的农业需水预测方法，进而构建了反映各用水部门交互反馈作用的系统动力学需水预测模型，实现了变化环境下生活、工业、农业需水预测，揭示了各用水部分需水量的动态演化规律，阐明了径流可利用量及各部门需水量在时空尺度的耦合情势；在此基础上，开展了变化环境下流域水资源多情景供需平衡分析，提出了面向不同规划水平年的供需水方案，解析了流域供水需水的动态平衡规律和效用补偿机制，通过分析区域内部社会经济、环境健康和生态服务之间的互馈关系，搭建了人-水耦合系统动力学模型，探明了变化环境下社会和经济、环境之间的协变关系。研究成果可为变化环境下流域水资源的开发、管理和优化运行提供了科学的理论指导。