多变条件下水电-风电共赢调峰模式研究及实现

Hydro and wind power joint peaking load regulation is an important strategy to solve the problem of wind power consumption, but it exists many problems. As for the problems that the peak load regulation scheme is injustice, its feasibility is not high ,it is difficult to adapt to changing conditions and the application is difficult to be achieved in the peaking load regulation. According to the research ideas “decision-making, peak shaving, compensation scheme and application", under the premise of ensuring the basic benefit of hydropower and wind power generation, the paper establishes feasible solution set of peaking load regulation, it uses the method of scheme comparison advantage degree to make preferred in multi-attribute comprehensive decision, and uses the peak shaving method in different time scales to adapt to changing conditions, what is more, it uses the two-way cascade compensation scheme for the power generation enterprise contributors to carry on the economic compensation. Meanwhile, the paper attempts to make the load data and information, and the related modules componentization, it is based on the knowledge visualization integrated platform to draw business knowledge process, to construct win-win peak-shaving service under the changeable conditions, then, to make the theory and method into the practical application. This topic research starts from the fair principle and the feasible solution, makes mutual benefit as the goal, pays attention to the practicability and adaptability of the scheme, then implementations specific application, thus it provides a feasible strategy to solve the problem of hydro and wind power system for combined peaking load regulation.

水电-风电联合调峰是解决风电消纳问题的一种重要策略，但却问题重重。针对水电-风电联合调峰过程中出现的调峰方案不公、可行性不高、难以适应多变条件及应用难实现等问题。按照“方案→决策→调峰→补偿→应用”研究思路，在保证水电和风电的基本发电效益前提下，建立调峰可行方案集，采用多属性综合决策中的方案对比优势度决策法进行方案择优，通过不同时间尺度的水电与风电融合的调峰方法来适应多变条件，并采用双向梯级补偿方案对发电企业调峰贡献者进行经济补偿。将调峰数据和信息及相关应用模块组件化，基于知识可视化综合集成平台，绘制业务知识流程，构建多变条件下的水电风电共赢调峰服务，将理论方法变为实际应用。本课题的研究从公平原则出发，从方案的可行性入手，以共赢为目标，注重方案的实用性和适应性，落实到具体应用，为解决水电-风电联合调峰问题提供了一条可行策略。

我国是风电大国，目前风电装机容量世界排名第一。风电属于清洁能源，应鼓励发展，但我国在风电发展过程中出现了诸多问题，弃风问题是其中最严重的问题。风电具有难预测、不可控、波动性大等特点，常被称为垃圾电，风电上网需要加大电网的调峰能力，由于风电的处理波动大、变化快，水电成为了风电最好的调峰源。在对风电进行调峰的同时，部分地区出现了弃水调峰现象，导致水电调峰的积极性不高。基于此，本项目提出多变条件下水电-风电共赢调峰模式，采用方案→决策→调峰→补偿→应用的研究思路，重点从以下几个方面开展了研究：.（1）水库来水及风功率的预测研究.提出多步骤的SACRAMENTO模型参数估计方法提高了流域来水的预测精度；提出事中型马斯京根法提高和河道来水预测精度；提出VMD模型和条件COPULA函数模型提高风功率预测精度。.（2）水风联合调度共赢区间、调度模型研究.提出基本、竞争、应急三级区间调度模式和调度模型，提高各方参与的积极性。.（3）水电多时间尺度调度机制及实例研究.提出大时间尺度约束小时间尺度，小时间尺度反馈大时间尺度的多时间尺度调度机制，使多时间尺度紧密衔接。.（4）考虑风电不确定性的水风联合调度研究.提出考虑风电不确定性区间的水风联合调度模型，并通过模型计算得到水电的运行区间，从而为水电不确定性调峰提供了理论支撑.（5）基于集成平台水风联合调度系统开发.基于知识可视化综合集成平台，将水电、风电相关模型封装成组件，并形成组件库，采用搭建的方式形成应用系统，并进行了仿真，提高了成果的可用性。