城市交通供需非均衡特性及调控方法研究

In this project, it considered the OD flows as multi-commodity flows and established a micro-market of residents’ travel. According to the market polymerization effect, a disequilibrium travel macro-market system was constructed. It applied a disequilibrium theory to analyze the travelers’ trip decision-making process, the travelers’ route choice behavior and the traffic spillover effect based on a travel market system. Effective demand function and effective supply function were built to study the feedback effects between traffic demand and supply. In order to reveal the existence of the disequilibrium, it made use of a modern control theory to study the evolution process and the stability of the disequilibrium state in a travel market. Then, a unity model for the equilibrium and disequilibrium of traffic demand and supply was proposed as a variational inequality problem.. Aiming at various disequilibrium conditions in the relationship between traffic demand and supply, it introduced some disequilibrium degree indices, including the total amount disequilibrium degree, the region disequilibrium degree and the structure disequilibrium degree. These disequilibrium degree indices reflected the matching degree between traffic demand and supply from different standpoints. It also established a model and corresponding measuring method for each disequilibrium degree index. In the end, focusing on the different developing trend of the traffic demand and supply disequilibrium degree, it put forward a set of effective method to regulate the traffic demand and supply relationship from macroscopic, mesoscopic, as well as microscopic levels. For a real traffic system, the traffic demand and supply relationship is always in a disequilibrium state. Disequilibrium theory is more universal than equilibrium theory in transportation system analysis. This project will greatly promote the development of urban transportation planning theory and traffic management method, it also had important academic value and a broad application prospects.

将OD流视为多商品流，建立居民出行微观市场，依据市场聚合关系，建立非均衡宏观市场体系；在出行市场体系中，运用非均衡理论分析出行决策过程、路线选择行为和溢出效应。构建有效需求函数和有效供给函数，研究交通供需之间的反馈效应；借助非均衡市场模型，运用现代控制理论研究出行市场中非均衡状态的演变过程及稳定性，揭示非均衡的存在性。运用变分不等式建立交通供需均衡和非均衡的统一性模型。. 针对交通供需关系中存在的各种非均衡情况，提出总量非均衡度、区域非均衡度和结构非均衡度指标和模型，从不同角度描述交通需求和交通供给之间的匹配程度。根据供需非均衡程度的不同发展态势，从宏观、中观和微观三个层面提出调控交通供需关系的有效方法。现实交通供需关系普遍处在非均衡状态之中，非均衡理论比均衡理论更具普适性，因此，本项目研究将极大地促进城市交通规划理论、交通管理方法的发展，具有重要的学术价值和广泛的应用价值。

交通供需关系普遍处在非均衡状态之中，面对我国城市演变过程中凸显的交通供需非均衡问题，本项目首次运用非均衡理论分析交通供需关系和调控方法，开展了如下创新性工作。.（1）建立了城市居民出行市场体系。分析了出行市场的调控机制，研究表明价格调节或数量调节均为价格—数量共同调节的特例。在多市场中，由于各种市场状态的转化非连续，市场状态始终围绕均衡点不断改变，却无法逼近市场均衡点。.（2）运用系统动力学方法建立了城市交通供需非均衡SD模型，研究了总量非均衡和结构非均衡问题。模拟了机动车发展政策、交通投资政策对交通供需关系的影响。.（3）研究了ATIS信息质量和市场渗透率对网络通行能力的影响，以及交通供需双向波动时网络通行能力可靠性；研究了非均一需求乘子下的网络通行能力提升问题，研究表明传统的均一需求乘子计算结果明显低估了网络供给水平，非均一需求乘子能体现网络通行能力增长结构的非均匀性，为优化需求分布，提高网络通行能力指明了方向。.（4）运用价格—数量调节原理研究网络交通流从非均衡向均衡的演化过程，建立了价格—数量调节演化模型，证明了价格演化模型和数量演化模型均为价格—数量演化模型的特例。价格—数量调节演化模型可灵活地考虑出行行为的异质性和有限理性。.（5）采用路径剩余容量作为数量调节变量，运用变分不等式和gap函数建立了等价的数量调节交通分配模型，并开发了有效的求解方法。.项目研究成果有力地促进了城市交通规划理论、交通管理方法的发展，具有重要的学术价值和广泛的应用前景。.项目组发表论文34篇，出版学术专著1部；培养“湖南省青年百人计划”、“湖湘英才”1名，博士研究生11名，硕士研究生22名。.