基于农户异质性视角的农业环境全要素生产率增长分析及提升机制研究

With the rapid economic development in China, the increase of agricultural production and the ecology have been being challenged by the low rate of agricultural resources utilization and the increasingly serious agricultural non-point source pollution. How to coordinate the relationship between agriculture, resources and environment to achieve sustainable agricultural development becomes an urgent issue. As farmers are the main body of agriculture, their behaviors play a crucial role in resource utilization and environmental pollution. Therefore, researches on environment total factor productivity of heterogeneous farmers and the corresponding ascending path can be the key to solve the problems of the low utilization rate of resources and the agricultural non-point source pollution. This study which is based on cases of two main apple eugenic areas, through empirical research, test etc. and uses total factor productivity analysis with environmental constraints with the consideration of climate factors such as precipitation, accumulated temperature etc., focuses on researches of the environmental total factor productivity in the heterogeneous farmers to reveal the characteristics and origin of growth and to measure the potential of agricultural non-point source pollution reduction; furthermore, through spatial econometric analysis, this project tries to explore the mechanism of farmers' environmental total factor productivity on both external and internal factors, such as environmental regulation policy, spatial characteristics, the heterogeneity of households etc. as well as its convergence mechanism and to simulate the analysis of the ascension path of farmers' environmental total factor productivity. Therefore, the study will make both theoretical and practical contributions to improve agricultural resources utilization rate, to reduce the non-point source pollution, and to the development of agricultural sustainable.

经济飞速发展的同时，我国农业资源利用率低下、农业面源污染严重给农业增产和生态环境带来了双重挑战，如何协调农业、资源和环境的关系最终实现农业可持续发展成为一个亟待解决的课题。农户作为从事农业的主体，其行为对资源利用率及环境污染起到决定性作用，因此，研究异质性农户的环境全要素生产率及其提升机制是从根本上解决资源利用率低下、农业面源污染的关键。本研究以两大苹果优生区为案例区，通过实证调研、试验，在考虑降雨量、积温等气候因素的基础上，运用有环境约束的全要素生产率分析法，研究异质性农户环境全要素生产率，揭示其增长的根源及特征，测算农业面源污染减排潜力；通过空间计量分析，探讨环境规制政策、空间特征、农户异质性等内外部因素对农户环境全要素生产率的作用机理，考察其收敛机制；并模拟分析提升农户环境全要素生产率的机制。该研究将对提升农业资源利用率、减缓面源污染、实现农业可持续发展有重要理论贡献和实践意义。

农业面源污染已超过工业污染成为中国环境污染的主要来源，农业发展面临资源、环境及农业经济协调发展的挑战。本项目旨在考察综合考虑资源、环境及农业经济可持续发展的农业环境全要素生产率的演化机制、空间特征及提升路径。本项目以两大苹果优生区的苹果产业为研究载体，基于对陕西、山西、甘肃、河南、河北、北京、辽宁、山东等八省市16个苹果重点县915个苹果种植户的实地调研数据，从微观和宏观两方面对中国苹果的环境效率及环境全要素生产率进行了实证分析。主体研究包括环境效率及环境全要素生产率模型的构建方法对比及选择，中国苹果环境效率测算、时空分布特征及其影响因素研究，中国苹果环境全要素生产率估算、时空分布特征及其影响因素研究，气候变化对中国苹果单产及全要素生产率的影响，中国苹果环境效率及环境全要素生产率提升路径及政策建议等五个方面。. 研究结果表明：（1）基于SFA的环境效率模型充分考虑了农业特别是种植业生产的特征，避免了由于污染量测算误差引起的环境效率估算偏误，其结果更精确。（2）中国苹果生产环境效率较低，仅考虑化肥的黄土高原区2014年苹果环境效率平均为0.43，1992-2014年中国苹果主产区环境效率平均为0.47，同时考虑农药与化肥的苹果环境效率要比单独考虑农药的环境效率（0.34）高，平均为0.78，技术培训、家庭人口结构、灌溉等对环境效率有正影响。（3）中国苹果环境全要素生产率年均增长2.82%，主要由技术进步驱动，年均技术进步变化率为2.27%，环境效率年均提高0.53%，时间趋势上大致可以分为四个阶段。农业信贷、人力资本对苹果环境全要素生产率的影响均呈现显著的门槛特征。（4）气温升高、降水量减少和日照时数减少均有利于苹果单产增加，气温、降水量和日照时数对全要素生产率的贡献与各地区的小气候特征有关，主要通过与地区的交互作用影响苹果全要素生产率。（5）建议加强苹果生产和管理技术研发，加大推广力度，提高资源利用效率，减少污染进而提升环境效率和环境全要素生产率。