SPS措施与农产品质量升级的耦合机制研究

Low quality is not only the direct reason of China's exports of agricultural products restricted by the Sanitary and Phytosanitary measures in developed countries, but als an important factor of structural imbalances between domestic supply and demand. Therefore, improving the quality competitiveness of agricultural products is a key problem urgently to be solved in China's agriculture. This project, starting from connotation of quality of agricultural products, analyzes the driven force and affecting factors of the quality upgrading of agricultural products. A nested Logit model is used to measure the quality competitiveness of Chinese agricultural products and its evolution. China's quality level of all kinds of agricultural products are compared with other countries. Based on heterogeneous firm theory it constructs an economic model among " SPS mesures, firms' technology level, the costs and benefits of quality upgrade", and explore the direct and indirect effects of SPS measures on the quality upgrade of the upstream and downstream firms from the industrial chain perspective. Using the distance to the frontier model it measures the influence of SPS measures on the quality upgrade of China's agricultural products. Taking the firms passing the HACCP(Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point) or GAP(GoodAgriculturalPractices) as a quality sign, it adopts Heckman two-stage model to study the effect of firms' quality upgrade on compliance with the SPS measures. Finally it designs quality upgrading path and SPS strategy for technology "leading firm", "average firm", "backward firm" . This project provides theoretical and empirical basis for improving the quality of China's agricultural products, and for the construction of both the quality and efficiency of the supply system of agricultural products.

质量水平低下既是中国农产品出口受阻于发达国家SPS措施的直接原因，也是国内供需结构性失衡的重要因素，提高农产品质量竞争力是中国农业亟待解决的关键问题。本项目从农产品质量的内涵出发，探讨农产品质量升级的动因和影响因素，采用嵌套Logit模型度量中国农产品质量竞争力及其演变， 横向比较中国各类农产品质量水平的国际差距；从异质性企业理论出发构建“SPS措施、企业技术水平、质量升级的成本与收益”的经济学模型，从产业链视角探讨SPS措施对上下游企业质量升级的直接和间接影响，采用前沿距离模型度量SPS措施对中国农产品质量升级的影响；以通过HACCP/GAP作为质量升级标志，采用Heckman二阶段模型探讨企业质量升级对于遵从SPS措施的影响；设计技术“领先企业”、“一般企业”、“落后企业”的质量升级路径和SPS策略，为提高中国农产品质量竞争力，构建质量与效率并重的农产品供给体系提供理论和实证依据。

为了控制在WTO框架开放农产品市场后发生系统性风险的可能，各国政府纷纷采纳卫生与植物检疫措施（Sanitary and Phytosanitary, SPS）提高农产品的质量进入门槛，SPS措施因而成为农产品贸易中的主要限制因素。项目从农产品质量的内涵入手，阐述了农产品质量与政府SPS措施的关系，采用零膨胀负二项回归模型模拟SPS措施的保护目的，采用局部均衡模型测度了SPS措施的保护效果，采用双重差分模型检验了日本肯定列表制度对中国农产品质量的影响，进而采用嵌套Logit模型和需求结构模型等多种方法测度了中国对日出口、对美出口以及对“一带一路”出口产品的质量水平，从企业异质性理论出发，构建“SPS措施、遵从成本与质量升级的分析框架，并将企业技术水平、出口产品多样化以及出口多目的国等因素引入模型，全方位分析了SPS措施影响农产品质量的作用机制及效应，项目还分析了质量升级对遵从进口国SPS措施的影响机制，最后从宏观、产业和微观企业视角提出对策。本项目的主要结论有：（1）SPS措施主要以保护健康为目的，也不排除保护贸易的嫌疑，SPS措施的保护效应在活动物产品更为明显；（2）中国农产品质量有较大提升，但与竞争者相比仍有一定距离，“性价比”是中国农产品出口增长的主要动力；（3）进口国SPS措施促进了中国农产品质量升级，尤其是技术落后企业较技术前沿企业实现较大幅度质量升级；（4）多产品出口企业在“技术溢出”、“干中学”和“退出驱动”三重合力效应下的质量升级效率最高；（5）进口国异质性SPS措施对中国农产品出口增长和质量升级存在差异化机制，企业在理性抉择质量遵从成本和市场转移成本时会被“质量升级困境”锁定；（6）质量升级行为对SPS措施影响的表现为质量升级使企业更能从容应对进口国SPS措施，出口贸易稳定性增强，且正向作用于出口的扩展边际和集约边际；（7）应以遵从发达国家SPS措施为契机，企业、产业和政府形成合力，努力提高农产品质量水平。