雾霾治理约束下中国绿色经济增长研究:基于绿色技术创新视角

The regulation of haze pollution has become an increasingly important issue in the field of environmental protection in China. Fully understanding and correctly evaluating the relationship between the regulation of haze pollution and green economic growth is of great significance for China’s realization of high-quality economic development under the New Normal. Taking China’s provinces and key cities as research objects, this study firstly evaluates the situation of haze pollution, regulative policies, green technological innovation and green economic growth level of each province or city, on the basis of explaining the existent dilemma between the regulation of haze pollution and economic growth. Secondly, it tries to find out the theoretical mechanism of how regulation of haze pollution could improve green economic growth by raising the level of green technological innovation. Thirdly, by using spatial econometric model, intermediary effect model, interactive term analysis and difference in difference method, this investigation tests empirically the effect of regulation of haze pollution on green economic growth and the role played by green technological innovation in the process, and then evaluates the effects and efficiency of concrete regulative policies of haze pollution. Next, a time substitution DEA approach is employed to measure the potential of winning both haze control and economic growth for each province or city, according to which designs of specific paths are put forward. Finally, an analysis of the contribution of the conclusions to the formulation of relative supportive policies of green economic growth is given, together with some suggestions about the direction of reforms in the future. The results of this research are going to enrich the theories of regulation of haze pollution, and provide scientific evidence for China’s establishment of a sound and sustainable green economic growth system.

雾霾治理已成为我国环保领域重要议题。正确认识并评估雾霾治理和绿色经济增长之间内在联系，对实现新常态下经济高质量发展具有重要意义。本课题以中国各省及重点城市为研究对象，首先对“雾霾治理——经济增长”两难困境阐释的基础上，利用相关方法评价中国各省及重点城市雾霾污染，雾霾治理，绿色技术创新和绿色经济增长水平；其次试图找出雾霾治理通过绿色技术创新水平提升实现绿色经济增长的理论机制；再次运用空间计量模型、中介效应模型、交互项方法及双重差分法实证检验雾霾治理对绿色经济增长的影响及绿色技术创新在其中的作用，并评估具体雾霾治理政策实施效果；然后采用时间可替代DEA模型测度出中国各省及重点城市同时实现雾霾治理和经济增长双重目标的潜力，并设计出绿色经济增长具体路径；最后分析课题结论在构建绿色经济增长相关保障政策中的作用及未来改革方向。研究成果将丰富雾霾治理理论，并为国家建立完善的绿色经济增长体系提供科学依据。

随着资源枯竭、环境污染加重、生态系统不断退化等形势的日趋严峻，雾霾治理已成为我国环保领域重要议题。在经济发展的新常态下，政府决策者面临着雾霾治理和经济增长的两难抉择。因此，如何合理评估目前雾霾治理和经济增长之间的关系，走出一条既考虑环境保护又不损害经济增长的绿色经济增长道路，对实现新常态下经济高质量发展具有重要意义。在此背景下，本课题突破技术中性这一条件，以绿色技术创新作为各省之间、各城市之间差异性的切入点，开展了以下研究内容：第一，以中国各省及重点城市为研究对象，首先对“雾霾治理——经济增长”两难困境阐释的基础上，分析评价中国各省及重点城市的雾霾污染、绿色技术创新和绿色经济增长水平现状；第二，通过构建小型开放经济的两部门一般均衡理论模型，分析雾霾污染造成经济社会不平等的影响机制；第三，运用空间计量模型、中介效应模型、交互项方法及双重差分法实证检验雾霾治理对绿色经济增长的影响及绿色技术创新在其中的作用，并评估具体雾霾治理政策实施效果；第四，采用时间可替代DEA模型测度出中国各省及重点城市同时实现雾霾治理和经济增长双重目标的环境效率和潜力，并设计出绿色经济增长具体路径；第五，设计雾霾治理、绿色经济增长的优化机制，提出具有针对性、系统性和可行性的雾霾治理对策措施。研究结果表明，在考虑各省份、各城市现实情况的基础上，雾霾治理能够以绿色技术创新为纽带，通过绿色技术创新水平的提高这一“良方”，形成“创新补偿效应”实现绿色经济增长。本课题建立了一个雾霾治理和绿色经济增长之间的内在联系系统，为国家实施区域差异化的雾霾治理政策，以科技手段来加速生态的修复及经济的发展，建立完善的绿色经济增长体系提供了科学依据。