极端气候事件对中国-全球农产品市场影响及对策

The increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme climate events under climate change has a great impact on food security. With the trend of the main agricultural production areas in the world increasingly gathering and the continuous integration of global food market in future, the impact of extreme events on regional food markets would be easily spread to the whole world. In this study, the overall goal is to answer the questions ‘how will the global and China’s food markets fluctuate after the major global agricultural producing areas are struck by extreme events of varying degrees, so as to provide the basis for comprehensive understanding of climate change impacts on agriculture and expand the capacity of global agricultural cooperation to cope with extreme events. To achieve this goal, we have designed the following research contents: 1) analysis of the transmission mechanism of extreme events’ shocks between China’s and global food market and the uncertainty of the extreme events; 2) parameter estimation of price transmissions and trade responses by China and the rest of the world under the impact of extreme events; 3) modeling linkages of China-global food markets under extreme events; 4) impact assessment of extreme events on China - global food markets; 5) multi-scenario simulation and relevant suggestion for global response to extreme climate events. The project intends to understand how prices at home and abroad are transmitted under extreme events, how to link the domestic and foreign food market models under extreme events, and how to simulate the different impacts under different global cooperation modes. Major innovations of the project include parameter estimation, model construction and policy simulations under abnormal conditions.

气候变化下极端气候事件发生的强度增大、频率增加，对食物安全影响巨大。未来农业主产区在全球呈集聚趋势，伴随全球农产品市场不断整合，很容易将极端事件的区域性影响扩散到全球。本研究总体目标是回答全球农业主产区发生不同程度极端事件后中国和全球农产品市场将发生什么波动，为全面了解气候变化对农业影响提供依据，提高全球农业合作应对极端事件的能力。为实现该目标，设置如下研究内容：1）极端事件对中国-全球农产品市场影响机制及不确定性判断；2）极端事件冲击下国内外农产品价格传递和贸易响应参数估计；3）极端事件下中国-全球农产品市场模型连接；4）极端事件对中国-全球农产品市场影响评估；5）全球应对极端气候事件的多情景模拟与对策建议。项目拟解决极端事件下国内外价格如何传递，如何连接国内外农产品市场模型，全球不同合作方式下影响有何差异三大关键科学问题。将在非常态情景下的参数估计、模型构建、政策模拟有重要创新。

气候变化下极端气候事件发生的强度增大、频率增加，对食物安全影响巨大。未来农业主产区在全球呈集聚趋势，伴随全球农产品市场不断整合，很容易将极端事件的区域性影响扩散到全球。本课题主要研究内容：1）极端事件对中国-全球农产品市场影响机制及不确定性判断；2）极端事件冲击下国内外农产品价格传递和贸易响应参数估计；3）极端事件下中国-全球农产品市场模型连接；4）极端事件对中国-全球农产品市场影响评估；5）全球应对极端气候事件的多情景模拟与对策建议。本课题研究发现：对于水稻、小麦、玉米和大豆，未来气候变化导致排名前5的主产国同时出现极端损失的概率明显增强；极端气候事件下，农业生产对期望价格的响应程度降低；多个主产国同时出现减产比个别主产国出现减产对全球供应链的破坏更大，中国大豆进口不仅面临进不来而且出现进口国更加集中的风险；建议各国注重适应气候变化合作（生长季预警调整等）、畅通全球价值链、减少贸易壁垒等合作应对全球气候危机。本课题回答了全球农业主产区发生不同程度极端事件后中国和全球农产品市场将发生什么波动，有助于全面了解气候变化对全球农业生产和贸易的影响，对于提高全球农业合作应对极端事件的能力有重要意义。