气候变化对中国不同区域农产品市场影响与对策研究

Climate change would have much different impacts on agricultural market in different regions of China, which could influence agricultural product supply, demand, price and trade, and threaten the sustainable development of agriculture both at national and regional levels in China. The goal of this project is to quantify the impacts of climate change on agricultural market in China’s regions and propose regional-specific adaptation measures for agriculture sector. To achieve this goal, the project will have the following four specific objectives: 1) to reveal the mechanism of climate change impacts on agricultural markets of different regions; 2) to gauge the physical impacts of climate change on agricultural production and their uncertainty in different regions of China under future climate scenarios; 3) to explore how to depict the impact and transmission mechanisms of climate change on different regions’ agricultural market with China’s multi-regional general equilibrium model; 4) to evaluate the impacts of climate change on agricultural market of different regions in China, and analyze the effect of agriculture market integration in buffering climate change impacts. Based on the simulation results and spatial structure of China’s agriculture production, the regional-specific policy suggestions will be put forward from production and policy perspectives. Major innovations of this study include constructing a unique database, analyzing impact mechanisms, and developing a new quantitative tool to provide empirical evidence that can help outline regional-specific adaptation measures to climate change.

气候变化将对我国不同农业生产造成差异化的影响，进而改变不同区域农产品市场供需、价格和贸易，从而影响全国及区域农业可持续发展。本研究总体目标是定量评估气候变化对我国不同区域农产品市场的影响，并提出农业应对气候变化的区域差异化策略。为实现该目标，拟开展如下四方面研究内容：1）揭示气候变化对我国不同区域农产品市场的影响机理；2）估计未来气候情景下我国不同区域农作物单产的变化及其不确定性；3）探索在中国多区域一般均衡模型中如何刻画不同区域气候变化的影响与传导机制；4）研究不同政策情景下气候变化对中国不同区域农产品市场的影响，分析农产品市场整合等政策对减缓气候变化影响的作用。结合我国农业生产的空间格局，从生产、政策等多方面提出农业应对气候变化的区域差异化政策建议。项目将在基础数据、影响机制和评估方法等方面有重要创新，并为各区域农业应对气候变化政策制定提供科学依据。

气候变化将对我国不同农业生产造成差异化的影响，进而改变不同区域农产品市场供需、价格和贸易，从而影响全国及区域农业可持续发展。本研究总体目标是定量评估气候变化对我国不同区域农产品市场的影响，并提出农业应对气候变化的区域差异化策略。为实现该目标，拟开展如下四方面研究内容：1）揭示气候变化对我国不同区域农产品市场的影响机理；2）估计未来气候情景下我国不同区域农作物单产的变化及其不确定性；3）探索在中国多区域一般均衡模型中如何刻画不同区域气候变化的影响与传导机制；4）研究不同政策情景下气候变化对中国不同区域农产品市场的影响，分析农产品市场整合等政策对减缓气候变化影响的作用。结合我国农业生产的空间格局，从生产、政策等多方面提出农业应对气候变化的区域差异化政策建议。项目将在基础数据、影响机制和评估方法等方面有重要创新，并为各区域农业应对气候变化政策制定提供科学依据。