边疆少数民族地区农村劳动力转移与土地流转互动耦合研究：困境、机理及对策

There is an objective relationship of mutual promotion or mutual restraint between rural labor transfer and land circulation, the coordinated development between them in frontier minority area is a major problem that needs to be solved to realize poverty alleviation and the urban and rural integration. The project addresses the dilemma of uncoordinated development of rural labor and land transfer in frontier minority area. To deal with these problems, first of all, this project summarizes the temporal and spatial characteristics and evolution trend of rural labor transfer and land circulation in different regions through the analysis of their current situation, and finds out the obstacle factors restricting the transfer of labor force and land circulation. Then the interaction relationship and influencing factors between farmer labor transfer and land circulation will be revealed based on the quantitative analysis of farmer behavior, and constructs the logical framework of theoretical analysis. The coupling degree of coordinated development between labor transfer and land circulation will be explored by the constructed index system from the macroscopic level and the weight of the index determined by the improved entropy method. And then, the coupling degree of rural labor transfer and land circulation will be measured by using the coupled model, analyzes the difference of temporal and spatial characteristics, reveals the development law of interactive coordination, and finds out the causes of the dilemmas. Finally, the interactive coordination mechanism and recommendations will be proposed from the farmers and the government to promote rural labor transfer and land circulation, which is of great theoretical and practical significance for realizing the coordinated development of urbanization and agricultural modernization.

农村劳动力转移与土地流转之间客观上存在相互促进相互制约的耦合关系。两者互动协调发展是边疆少数民族地区农民脱贫致富奔小康和实现城乡一体化发展中急需解决的重大问题。本项目针对边疆少数民族地区面临的农村劳动力转移与土地流转之间发展不协调的困境。通过对其现状的梳理分析，总结不同区域农村劳动力转移和土地流转的时空特征及演化趋势，寻找制约劳动力转移和土地流转的障碍因素；采用定量方法分析农户劳动力转移与土地流转行为选择，探讨两者的作用机理及影响因素，建立理论分析逻辑框架；从宏观层面构建劳动力转移与土地流转指标体系，采用改进的熵值法确定指标权重；运用耦合模型测量农村劳动力转移与土地流转的耦合协调度，分析时空特征差异；揭示两者互动协调的发展规律；找出造成困境的原因；从微观和宏观层面提出劳动力转移与土地流转互动协调发展的机制及对策。对于实现城镇化和农业现代化协调发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。

农业、农村与农民问题是关系到国计民生的根本性问题，乡村振兴战略的实施，必须对农地和劳动力这两大关键农业生产要素进行重新配置。因此，研究农地流转与劳动力转移耦合协调发展问题对于促进新疆乡村振兴战略实施具有重要意义。.本研究以新疆土地流转与劳动力转移为研究对象，剖析了土地流转与劳动力转移时空演变趋势与特征；探寻了土地流转与劳动力转移关联性以及耦合作用机理；从宏观与微观角度分别构建土地流转与劳动力转移耦合协调度评价指标体系，测算新疆土地流转与劳动力转移耦合度、耦合协调度；归纳总结出新疆土地流转与劳动力转移发展过程中存在的问题与成因，对影响二者耦合协调发展因素进行实证分析，并在此基础上提出实现土地流转与劳动力转移耦合协调发展的路径，旨在为推进新疆土地流转与劳动力转移耦合协调发展提供理论依据与实践参考。研究主要结论：（1）新疆土地流转与劳动力转移存在时间关联性和地理空间依赖性。劳动力转移对土地流转的影响程度较小，土地流转对劳动力转移的影响程度较大，并表现出显著的负向空间相关性。（2）阐明了土地流转与劳动力转移之间相互促进、相互制约的作用机理，具有整体性、相互作用性与动态调整性特征。（3）基于统计数据测算得出新疆土地流转与劳动力转移处于高水平耦合、初级协调等级；基于农户调查数据测算得出新疆土地流转与劳动力转移处于高水平耦合、基本协调等级。（4）新疆土地流转与劳动力转移耦合协调水平受土地资源禀赋、新型农业经营主体、农业装备水平、农业规模化经营及土地流转发展水平等因素影响。基于农户调查数据分析，政策因素、经济因素、土地流转与劳动力转移对耦合状态有显著性的正向影响，且政策因素与土地流转对耦合状态存在间接效应。