贫困地区农户社会网络资本对信贷可得性影响及作用机理研究

The farmers in the poor areas can’t obtain loans from the formal financial institutions because they haven’t mortgage, guarantee and cash flows which are necessary for modern loan technology, but the funds shortage is fatal to relieve the poverty. Through the long-term investigation into the poor areas, the author found that loans from informal financial organizations which based on blood, kinship, region and industry occupied a considerable proportion in the rural credit market. The project will take the farmers’ social network capital as breakthrough point and select indexes to classifying them. After assigned value to the social network capital, the long-term and short-term impaction on farmer’ credit availability will be discussed. Then, signal transmission mechanism of farmers’ credit risk on the basis of social network capital will be expounded to differentiate the kinds of farmers’ credit risk by the game model about the farmers and informal financial organizations. At last, in order to improve the farmers’ loan availability in the poor areas, the new credit evaluation systems including social network capital will be structured in data-mining method and multi-criteria decision-making. Ultimately, the project will aim at detecting the organic connection between social network capital and credit availability to solve the farmers' credit constraints and reduce the risks in rural credit market as well as providing theoretical support and technical references for developing rural inclusive finance.

贫困地区农户由于缺乏符合现代信贷技术要求的抵押、担保及现金流而无法获得正规金融机构的信贷，资金匮乏是束缚农户脱贫脱困的桎梏。通过对农村贫困地区长期跟踪调研，发现在农村信贷市场上，基于血缘、亲缘、地缘、业缘关系、内生于小农家庭的非正规金融信贷占有相当大的比重。本研究以农户社会网络资本为切入点，选取社会网络资本测度指标并对其归类；引入赋值的社会网络资本，分析其对农户信贷可得性的短期与长期影响；通过构建农户与非正规金融之间的信号传递博弈模型，阐明社会网络资本对农户信贷风险的信号传递机理，辨析农户信贷风险类型；运用数据挖掘方法、多准则决策分类等，对现有信贷方法和技术进行再造，建立纳入社会网络资本指标的信用评估体系，提升贫困地区农户信贷可得性。本研究旨在建立社会网络资本与信贷可得性之间的有机联系，解决农户信贷约束困境，降低农村信贷市场风险，为大力发展农村普惠金融提供理论支持和技术借鉴。

2020年是我国全面建成小康社会目标实现之年，是全面打赢脱贫攻坚战收官之年。我国贫困人口大部分分布在偏远落后的农村地区，许多农户由于无法提供金融机构信贷要求的抵押、担保及现金流而被排斥在金融信贷之外。落后的农村金融市场与严重的信贷约束，极大地制约了农村经济的快速发展和农户收入水平的稳步提高。因此，如何发展农村金融市场，如何缓解贫困地区农户信贷约束一直是我国政府部门关注的重点和农村金融研究的热点。.社会网络资本是一种特殊的资本，它不仅具有一般资本或资源的属性，具有生产性，而且是物质资本和人力资本的补充，是增加个人利益的手段，是解决集体行动的重要生产性资源。近年来，随着社会网络资本从社会学向经济学的过渡，社会网络资本对于提高农户收入、促进农村经济发展的作用越来越受到研究者的关注。基于此，本研究结合我国“三农”问题的现实，继承、融合农村金融发展的相关理论并加以创新，以农村乡土文化为土壤，以血缘、亲缘、地缘、业缘关系为纽带，通过问卷调查来获取农村地区农户社会网络资本指标数据。根据农村金融市场供求现状，从信贷供给方与需求方的不同特征入手，剖析社会网络资本对农户信贷可得性影响及社会网络资本的信贷风险的信号传递机理，构建纳入社会网络资本度量指标的农户信用风险评价体系，最终达到提升农户信贷可得性、降低金融机构信贷风险的目的。本研究不仅进一步丰富、完善了农村金融发展理论，而且对缓解农户信贷约束、降低农村金融市场信贷风险具有现实的指导意义，同时也为持续发展农村普惠金融提供技术参考。