基于动态载荷谱的复杂机电系统混合不确定性量化及可靠性分析

The complex mechatronic systems is a multi-functional complex equipment integrated by multi-physics processes such as machine and electricity and multi-unit technology. In the reliability analysis, there are many difficulties in service dynamic load measurement, hybrid uncertainty parameter quantization, multi-physics process coupling, etc. The hybrid uncertainty quantification becomes a common technical problem, which is the technical bottleneck in the reliability analysis process of complex mechatronic systems. This work aims at the technical problem that the basic rules of complex mechatronic system reliability based on hybrid uncertain parameters are difficult to describe accurately under service load. Firstly, the service load characteristics of complex mechatronic systems are studied, and multi-dimensional dynamic load spectrum is constructed. The limitations of probability measure based on probability theory and fuzzy reliability measure based on fuzzy theory are broken. Starting from the basic measure method, the measure method of uncertainty theory is introduced, and the uncertainty measure method is extended to realize the unified quantization of random, fuzzy and interval hybrid uncertain parameters. The theory of energy transfer and uncertainty information transfer in multi-physics process is studied, and the theory and method of reliability analysis of complex mechatronic systems based on uncertain measure and multi-physics process coupling are formed to improve the service performance and reliability of complex mechatronic systems. At the same time, it provides a theoretical basis for the reliability design optimization of complex mechatronic systems.

复杂机电系统是由机、电等多物理过程、多单元技术集成的多功能复杂装备，其可靠性分析过程中存在服役动态载荷度量、多种不确定性参数量化、多物理过程耦合等诸多难点亟待解决，其混合不确定性量化成为共性技术难题，是复杂机电系统可靠性分析过程中的技术瓶颈。本课题针对服役载荷下基于混合不确定参数的复杂机电系统可靠性基本规律难以准确描述的技术难题，首先研究复杂机电系统的服役载荷特性，构建多维动态载荷谱；突破基于概率论建立的概率测度和基于模糊理论的模糊可靠性度量的局限性，从基本的测度方法出发，引入不确定理论，拓展不确定性度量方法，实现对随机、模糊及区间类混合不确定参数的统一量化；研究多物理过程耦合的能量传递和不确定性信息的传递规律，形成基于不确定测度和多物理过程耦合的复杂机电系统可靠性分析的理论与方法，提升复杂机电系统的服役性能和可靠性，同时，为复杂机电系统的可靠性设计优化提供理论基础。

复杂机电系统可靠性分析是提升系统可靠性和服役性能的必要措施，本项目以典型复杂机电系统为研究对象，主要研究服役工况条件下动态载荷谱构建，并提出三类不确定性量化方法，研究服役工况下系统可靠性分析策略。具体内容包括：1）研究服役载荷特性，建立复杂机电系统的时域载荷外推、参数载荷外推、非参数载荷外推和基于预测模型的载荷外推模型，提出动态载荷谱构建方法，构建了伺服刀架、主轴、RV减速器的动态载荷谱和程序加载谱；2）结合方向抽样的高效性和极坐标降维的特点，提出了随机-区间-模糊三类不确定性参数的统一量化方法，利用参数概率分布上下界的波动，通过仿真求解系统不确定可靠度；3）针对可靠性分析过程中遇到的低效、小失效概率、高维等问题，建立了以全局评价指标为核心的最速收敛准则，提出了基于置信区间夹逼的全局收敛条件，同时还提出了面向小失效概率的并行可靠性分析方法和基于区间压缩方法的高维自适应可靠性分析方法，并针对发动机曲轴、机床主轴和工业机器人等开展了可靠性分析验证。通过项目研究，发表SCI检索论文11篇、EI检索论文3篇，公开发明专利13件（其中授权10件），培养研究生7名。部分成果已成功应用于国产数控机床整机及关键功能部件的研发中。项目研究成果为解决国产高端数控机床、工业机器人可靠性增长难题奠定了理论基础，同时对未来高端数控制造装备的可靠性设计和可靠性试验有着重要的参考价值。