“一带一路”中国大陆区水资源空间均衡量化方法研究

The project aims to quantitatively study the issue of spatial disequilibrium of “the Belt and Road” in mainland-China water resources, as well as provide support for meeting the national strategic demand for water security. The main thread of the project will be the study of quantitative means for characterizing spatial equilibrium of water resources. Firstly, the project will analyze the spatial distribution of “the Belt and Road” water resources in mainland China on a grid, clarify the interactive relations within the composite system between water resources, the economy, society, and the environment, uncover the mechanism of spatial equalization of water resources, and put forward the theory of spatial equilibrium of water resources. Secondly, this project will propose a calculation method for the water resources spatial equilibrium coefficient, and by combining “single index quantification, multiple index synthesis, poly-criteria integration (SMI-P)” method, the study will quantify water resources spatial equilibrium criteria, calculate and map water resources spatial equilibrium contours as well as gravity centered distributions, identify the key factors in the spatial equilibrium of water resources, and provide a quantitative expression for the degree of spatial equilibrium in water resources. Thirdly, based on the theory of multi-dimensional threshold harmony regulation and considering water distribution – utilization – supply - protection as its multi-dimensional critical constraints, the construction method of the water resources spatial equilibrium regulation model will be put forward, and the multi-dimensional threshold harmony regulation model will be established, which will meet the needs for characterizing the spatial equilibrium of water resources. For demonstration, the method and model will both be applied to the Tarim River Basin region, in order to test and improve the results of the theoretical studies. This project is of great significance for establishing a theoretical model of spatial equilibrium in water resources, and guaranteeing the smooth implementation of the major strategy of “the Belt and Road” in mainland China.

为定量研究“一带一路”中国大陆区水资源空间不均衡问题，支撑国家重大战略水安全需求，本项目拟以水资源空间均衡量化方法研究为主线，对“一带一路”中国大陆区进行基于网格的水资源空间分析，明晰水资源-经济-社会-环境复合系统的互馈关系，揭示水资源空间均衡的作用机制，提出水资源空间均衡理论；研究提出水资源空间均衡系数计算方法，结合“单指标量化-多指标综合-多准则集成（SMI-P）”方法，量化水资源空间均衡准则，计算描绘水资源空间均衡等值线和重心分布图，辨识水资源空间均衡关键因子，定量表达水资源空间均衡程度；基于多维临界和谐调控理论，考虑水资源分布-利用-供给-保护多维临界约束，提出水资源空间均衡调控模型构建方法，建立满足水资源空间均衡需求的多维临界和谐调控模型，并在示范区塔里木河流域应用，检验和完善理论研究成果。本项研究对构建水资源空间均衡理论方法体系、保障“一带一路”重大战略顺利实施具有重要意义。

为定量研究“一带一路”中国大陆区水资源空间不均衡问题，支撑国家重大战略水安全需求，本项目以水资源空间均衡量化方法研究为主线，构建满足水资源空间均衡需求的多维临界和谐调控模型。在“一带一路”水资源分布空间分析方面：首创提出“一带一路”主体路线及主体水资源区的概念，并首次绘制出“一带一路”主体路线及主体水资源区图，系统分析了各分区水资源特征和水问题，提出了“一带一路”分区水安全保障体系框架和借鉴中国治水经验的途径。在水资源空间均衡作用机制与量化方法方面：提出了水资源空间均衡理论及应用研究框架、水资源适应性利用理论方法的应用规则、基于GIS分析的水资源分布空间均衡计算方法。在水资源空间均衡调控模型及应用研究方面，提出了水资源空间均衡程度度量方法和水资源空间均衡调控优化模型，并在“一带一路”沿线国家开展实例研究。研究表明：“一带一路”主体路线由中国陆上主体路线、中国海上主体路线、国外陆上主体路线和国外海上主体路线组成，形成了一张覆盖亚、欧、非大陆的“三纵三横”网络；“一带一路”主体水资源区横跨亚、欧、非大陆50个国家，总面积达1877.00万km2；主体水资源区的一级分区、二级分区、三级分区单元个数分别为11个、50个、1172个；2003-2013年，“一带一路”主体水资源区的森林和耕地面积显著增加，而草地和灌丛面积显著减少；水资源空间均衡理论及应用研究框架、水资源适应性利用理论方法的应用规则为进一步构建水资源空间均衡管控模型和水资源适应性利用量化方法奠定基础和提供工具；基于GIS空间分析来表征任意空间点或空间单元均衡程度的空间均衡系数和表征全区域均衡程度的总体空间均衡度的计算方法是可靠的；2002-2017年，“一带一路”沿线发展中国家的人水和谐度变化较大，而发达国家的和谐度则相对稳定，且总体高于发展中国家。研究结果对构建水资源空间均衡理论方法体系、保障“一带一路”倡议顺利实施具有重要意义。