城市网络化重构时空模式挖掘与情景模拟

Urban multi-center, networking phenomenon is springing up, which challenges urban models with the assumption of single center. A network perspective has increasingly become a promising study paradigm to understand the intercity spatial structure and region urban system. In this proposal, the complex network analysis, spatio-temporal data mining and counterfactual scenario simulation technologies has been introduced into resolve three main issues: exploring the networking characteristics of intercity, metric system and driving forces of the regional city system; mining the spatial pattern of population agglomeration and migration; simulating the scenarios of intercity networking dynamic considering land-population collaborative urbanization. A metric system and scenario simulation model of intercity network will be constructed. In order to implement the model, a software system will be developed with the developing language of C# and the middle ware of ArcEngine 10.2. Finally, a case study will be implemented by taking the city system of Wuhan urban agglomeration (Wuhan 1+8 urban system), which will validate the proposed models and technologies of intercity network analysis, mining and simulation as well reveal the characteristics and spatio-temporal dynamic of Wuhan 1+8 urban system.

揭示城市系统网络化重构的动力机制，挖掘城市网络化时空格局特征及其演变规律，是合理规划和引导我国当前剧烈城市变迁过程亟需解决的科学问题。本研究综合运用复杂网络分析、时空数据挖掘和反现实情景模拟技术，重点研究人口流动对城市网络化重构作用机制、城市网络化时空格局测度、重构过程情景模拟与空间优化的基础理论与关键技术，提出人口流动引导城市网络化空间重构的解释模型，研发面向区域城市系统—关联城市—单体城市的城市集聚度指数、关联度指数和开发强度指数的城市网络化时空格局多维度、多尺度测度体系与挖掘方法，建立城市网络化发展反现实情景模拟模型，发展模拟情景的综合评价与优化技术，研发实验系统，并选取武汉市1+8城市圈为典型区，研究武汉城市圈网络化重构的时空模式与演变过程，为武汉城市圈新型城镇化战略提供决策支持。

探索城市网络化时空动态过程，构建多情景网络化发展模拟模型，揭示网络化重构的动力机制，能够为区域协调发展、国土空间优化决策提供政策建议。当前研究在城市网络化动态过程和网络化发展情景模拟基础理论和关键技术等方面有着巨大需求，存在着动力机制认识不足、模拟模型描述不完整、考虑因素有所欠缺等问题。研究针对上述问题，着重考虑人口流动要素，关注城市空间交互作用，对城市网络化过程进行空间显式化表达，实现了顾及人口流动空间交互作用的城市群协同扩展模型，探索了基于市域单元和栅格单元的城市系统空间扩展的多尺度动力机制；同时面向快速城镇化背景下的乡村聚落，构建了基于社会基础设施和改进引力模型的乡村居民点网络，探索了乡村居民点优化模型的基础理论和关键技术。上述模型在武汉城市圈、长江中游城市群、青藏高原河湟谷地等研究区应用实验中取得了良好的效果。本课题一共发表期刊论文21篇，其中SCI/SSCI检索论文11篇，培养研究生33名。