城市群空间交互情景分析与多尺度协同模拟

The simulation of Urban expantion is a hotspot, which has been studied extensively by different researchers. Many simulation models have been constructed and applied in urban planning and management. However, these theories and methodologies can't be used to model the processes of urban agglomeration expansion directly. Three key issues should be solved here: the multi-scale dynamic mechanism of urban agglomeration expansion, the metric of spatial interaction among the network of cities in urban agglomeration and the collaborative simulation model. In this study, we want to propose a unified framework focused on these three issues. Firstly, we design a three-layer system to explain the dynamic mechanism of urban agglomeration. At micro level, neighborhood interaction is adopted as the core driven force. The accessibility, suitability, neighbor and policies are considered as the driven factors. At meso level, the internal driven forces of single urban growth, such as GDP, population, resource, traffic network are considered. At macro level, the spatial interaction is used to explain the external driven force. Secondly, an approach of measuring spatial interaction among cities is studied. The spatial data mining technologies are introduced to measure the intensity of urban essential factors flows.Thirdly, a collaborative simulation model is created with two integration: the integration of driving factor dynamic simulation with urban expansion simulation; the integration of different cities expansion simulation considering their spatial interaction. In the last section, an experimental software system will be developed. Using this software as a tool,1 plus 8 Wuhan urban agglomeration is taken as an example to test the validation of the proposed models and methodologies.

针对传统以单一城市为研究对象，以城市的场所空间区位理论及其邻域交互为出发点的城市扩张模拟，面临向以城市群为研究对象、以城市网络空间交互和联合增长为核心的协同模拟转变的重大需求，研究城市群时空增长动力机制、空间网络交互测度与情境分析、城市群联动增长模拟等基础理论和关键技术，建立城市群空间扩张多尺度驱动机制，提出基于泛在、众源数据挖掘的城市群网络空间交互测度方法和基于数据场的情景分析模型，构建城市群空间格局演变的多尺度协同模拟模型，实现城市群联动增长的协同模拟。基于此研发城市群空间增长多尺度协同模拟实验系统，选取武汉1+8城市圈为例，分别开展武汉市都市区（武汉市的1主城区+6远郊区）和武汉1+8城市圈两个不同一体化程度的城市群空间扩张实例研究，以揭示城市群内城市空间交互对城市扩张格局的影响，为合理规划和引导城市群建设发展提供决策依据。

城市扩张模拟是近年来研究热点，专家学者们已经多方展开研究，取得了多种模拟模型方法，并将其应用于城市规划管理。但是传统研究大多以单一城市为研究对象，以城市所处空间的区位理论及其内部邻域交互为出发点进行城市扩张模拟，现在已经面临以城市群为研究对象、以城市间网络空间交互和联合增长为核心的协同模拟理论方法转变的重大需求。本项目研究了城市群时空增长动力机制、空间网络交互测度方法和联动增长模拟建模的基础理论和关键技术，提出了城市群空间增长多尺度驱动因子体系，建立了基于泛在众源地理空间数据挖掘的城市群网络空间交互测度方法和基于数据场的情景分析模型，构建城市群空间格局演变的多尺度协同模拟模型，研究内容主要集中在5个方面：①城市群城市空间相互作用研究；②城市群产业空间联系研究；③城市群城市化与生态环境交互胁迫机制研究；④城市群城市化与生态环境关系定量研究；⑤城市群城市化情景模拟。项目分别开展了武汉市城市圈核心区（武汉市的1主城区+6远郊区）和1+8城市圈、长江中游城市群三个不同一体化程度的城市群空间扩张实例研究，以验证研究模型方法的合理性，并揭示城市群内城市空间交互强度对城市扩张格局的影响，运用系统动力学仿真技术动态模拟城镇化-生态环境交互胁迫系统，分析各子系统内部及子系统之间定量的反馈关系，并基于关键要素调控手段模拟与分析该系统在不同发展条件下的动态演变特征，并对模拟结果的可持续性进行定量评价，以为合理引导和规划城市群建设和发展提供决策依据。在项目研究期间，共发表相关高水平研究论文31篇，其中SCI检索8篇， SSCI检索3篇， EI检索14篇；开发城市群空间扩张协同模拟系统原型1套；已申请软件著作权登记2项；已建成长江中游城市群空间扩张模拟实验数据库和成果数据库，并完成项目结题总结报告。