中国公共卫生安全风险演化机理及治理场域建构研究

Public health security risk is a major non-traditional security factors that China is facing, a serious threat to national security and people's health. The current research on its concept and the complexity of multiple risk factors is still in the stage of theoretical exploration, which is difficult to provide effective reference for public health safety control and prevention work. Based on the literature content analysis with expert consultation methods, this study will propose a precise definition of public health safety and analyze its connotation and extension. The public health security evaluation framework will be established from the perspective of risk events, risk Bearer and emergency management, which is used for assessing accurately the status of the public health security in China. On that basis, influence factors analysis of public health security will be conducted cross multiple typical cases using Qualitative Comparative Analysis. Under the guidance of Social Combustion Theory and Value-added Theory, the theoretical model of public health security risk evolution path will be constructed. And then, a simulation modeling constructed by System Dynamic and Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory will be used in analyzing the interaction among those influence factors, to elucidate the risk evolution mechanism of public health security. Finally, guided by the Field Theory, this study will deconstruct the multi-agent interaction model in the practice of public health security governance, and reconstructs the reality with the theoretical framework of “Relationship coupling-Process interaction-Knowledge aggregation” (R-P-K). This study will clear the status of public health security in overall national security concept, which is of great theoretical and practical importance for planning effective public health security prevention and control strategy.

公共卫生安全风险是我国面临的重大非传统安全因素，严重威胁国家安全与人民健康。当前对其概念与风险因素复杂性的研究仍处于理论探讨阶段，难以为公共卫生安全防控工作提供有效借鉴。本研究首先以内容分析法结合多轮次多形式的专家论证来精确界定公共卫生安全的定义，辨析其内涵与外延；进而，从风险事件、风险承载体、应急管理三个维度对当前的公共卫生安全态势开展定性风险评估；在此基础上，通过定性比较分析法开展跨案例的风险演化影响因素分析，基于社会燃烧理论和价值累加理论构建公共卫生安全风险演化路径模型，应用决策实验室分析法和系统动力学仿真建模方法分析影响因素间的相互作用关系，从而阐明公共卫生安全风险的演化机理；最后，以场域理论为指导，解构公共卫生安全治理实践中的多元主体行为互动模式，以“关系耦合-过程互动-知识聚合”的理论框架进行经验检视与现实重构。本研究将明晰公共卫生安全在总体国家安全观中的地位，在理论和实践上具有重要意义。

近年来不断发生的重大传染病疫情，尤其是新型冠状病毒肺炎的应对实践表明，我国公共卫生安全风险治理存在诸多理论与实践的困境。总体国家安全观与“健康中国”战略又对其防控策略提出了新要求，而公共卫生安全在相当长的时期内并未受到足够的重视，国家层面缺少总体战略规划，在新型国家安全体系中地位也不明确。针对国内外公共卫生安全尚无统一界定，以及公共卫生安全风险的复杂性问题，本项目遵循“定义界定-态势评估-风险演化-治理场域”的总体思路展开。按照项目预期研究计划，完成了以下四个方面的研究：一是以内容分析法结合多轮次专家论证，准确界定了公共卫生安全的内涵与外延，提出了具有普遍接受度的定义，确定了公共卫生安全在国家安全中的理论地位；二是从风险事件、风险承载体、应急管理三个维度对我国当前的公共卫生安全态势开展定性风险评估，确定了公共卫生安全风险的优先级别和关键问题；三是以典型公共卫生安全事件为例，开展了跨案例的风险演化影响因素分析，构建了公共卫生安全风险演化的路径模型，并分析影响因素间的相互作用关系，从而阐明公共卫生安全风险的演化机理，揭示公共卫生安全对其他国家安全领域产生影响的规律；四是以场域理论为指导，从关系耦合（Relation coupling）、过程互动（Process interaction）、知识聚合（Knowledge aggregation）3个维度构建了公共卫生安全治理场域的“R-P-K”理论分析框架，提出了我国公共卫生安全的战略目标和优先领域，从而为研制有效的公共卫生安全防控策略提供依据，促进国家安全保障能力的提升。在上述研究内容中，针对当前的新冠肺炎疫情，利用网络大数据开展了新冠疫情网络舆情风险演化的专题分析，以及基于情景模拟的方法开展了应急状态下医疗资源需求评估及应对准备的研究。