我国非常规油气开发技术工程化实现的投资激励策略研究

Aiming to exploit Chinese domestic unconventional petroleum resources both rapidly and efficiently, this project delves into related problems such as uncertainty in engineering implementation of technique, technology learning type, technology learning curve at industrial level, investing-encourage strategy, etc. (1)Based on the current situation of technology of unconventional petroleum resources and its engineering implementation at home and abroad, this project analyzes the relationship between technology learning types (revolutionary technology learning type, incremental technology learning type and existing technology learning type) and the degree of uncertainties of different techniques by utilizing the grounded theory, the event study method and Bayes statistics. (2)By collecting international technology learning curves in different kinds of unconventional oil and gas resources, this project estimates domestic technological learning curves and the investment demand; calculates the boundary conditions and best timing for investment based on real option game model, multiple Meta-analysis and Bayes statistical estimation methods. (3)We intend to propose ladder-descending multidimensional incentive strategies based on the technique learning types and the industrial technology learning curves. By using the real option game model, we would also provide the boundary conditions of the investors' stratigy, either choosing the leading strategy or following strategy. Above all, this project serves as the cornerstone for our nation to design ladder-descending multidimensional investing-ecouragement strategies.

为又"快"又"好"开发我国非常规油气资源，本项目探究非常规油气开发技术工程化实现的不确定性因素、技术学习形态、行业技术学习曲线和投资主体激励等问题。（1）基于非常规油气开发技术及其工程化实现的国内外实际，采用扎根、事件和Bayes统计推断等方法，凝练不同非常规油气种类技术工程化实现的不确定性程度与技术学习形态（创新技术学习形态、增量技术学习形态及成熟技术学习形态）联系的特征。（2）收集国内外不同非常规油气种类开发工程项目技术学习曲线，利用多元Meta-analysis及Bayes统计估计，测算不同非常规油气开发行业技术学习曲线与投资需求，利用实物期权博弈模型测算投资主体进入时序和投资边界条件。（3）基于技术学习形态、行业技术学习曲线等设计阶梯递减多维投资激励策略，利用实物期权博弈模型测算开发投资主体选择领先或跟随投资的边界条件，为国家设计阶梯递减投资激励策略提供依据。

项目立项四年来，团队成员围绕“非常规油气开发技术工程化实现的投资激励策略”这一重大科学问题展开研究，取得了预期成果，论文发表23篇，出版专著2本（出版中），培养博士生8人，硕士生3人。主要完成以下工作：（一）以实际数据为依据，澄清了致密气开发过程中的产能不确定性问题，尤其是压裂输入变量（入地总量、陶粒用量及混砂液量）与压裂策略变量（砂比、含砂浓度等）对产能影响的影响机理，并对压裂输入变量提出优化策略。（二）以涪陵页岩气开采实际数据，拟合给出页岩气钻井成本学习曲线；依据技术学习曲线理论改进成本测算方法，建立页岩气开发项目价值评估模型；结合页岩气开发项目产能和产量特征，研究市场需求不确定情境下页岩气项目投资时机与钻井数量决策问题，进而探讨不对称双寡头开发企业领先-追随投资期权博弈问题，揭示竞争与合作投资模式下的开发企业投资均衡策略。（三）引入社会收益变量衡量页岩气开发带来的正外部性收益，构建页岩气开发投资激励模型，论证给出了政府激励策略选择的边界条件及不同激励方式下的激励水平。