西部民族地区城镇化群体性事件特征及化解的制度合力研究

China urbanization has been developing at an unprecedented speed. However, the mass incidents brought by the urbanization have become the focus of society. Especially in the China's west national areas, due to the slow economic development and some special interests from clans, nations, religions and informal institutions, the mass incidents will be more likely to lead to conflicts among the different nations, the different populace and the local governments, and cause social instability, if these mass incidents could not be resolved timely and appropriately. However, the mass incidents in China's west national areas have not been suitably and specially researched, even have not been gotten as much attention as them should. Therefore, this project will take the urbanized mass incidents in west national areas as the major research object and take the conflict theory and coordination mechanism as the theoretical basis, by using the cooperative game and incentive compatibility theories, to deeply analyze their genesis, differences and evolution rules on the bases of the combination of theories and practices, and study formal and informal institutions and their effects, influences, regularities and institutional join force mechanisms. At last, this project will take 16 counties in Yunnan province of China as the survey objects to research their urbanized mass incidents, and construct the technical framework and implementation path to deal with and resolve them.

中国城镇化正以前所未有的速度发展，然而，城镇化带来的群体性事件也日益成为社会关注的焦点。尤其是在我国西部民族地区，由于当地经济社会发展较慢，同时又触及到家族、族群、宗教、非正式组织的利益，其群体性事件若得不到及时处置和化解，将更容易引起区域内部民族间、民众间、民族民众与政府间的冲突，引起局部社会动荡。然而，西部民族地区群体性事件的现象在以往研究中均没有被区别开来，甚至没有得到应有的重视。因此，本课题将以西部民族地区城镇化群体性事件为研究对象，以冲突理论与协同机制为基础，通过合作博弈、激励相容约束分析，从理论和实践相结合的角度，深入分析西部民族地区城镇化过程中群体性事件的成因、差异及其演化，研究正式制度和非正式制度的作用、影响、规律及其制度合力机制，结合云南省滇中地区16个县、市城镇化为调研基础，对群体性事件的实证进行样本分析，构建化解西部民族地区城镇化群体性事件的技术框架和实现路径。

随着城镇化和经济社会的发展，社会矛盾和冲突日益成为社会关注的焦点。本课题在与东中部地区的对比研究中发现西部民族地区城镇化群体性事件有脆弱性同步化、族群化“抱团”、宗教感化、非正式组织导向、线上线下联动等5个方面的特点。在此背景上，我们以个体在群体性事件形成的自我期望与社会现实的冲突为重点，分别从快速城镇化、非正式制度、合作博弈、因子分析法、系统动力学等理论方法和实地调研、头脑风暴、德尔菲法等实践操作对政府、企业、农民三个角度的非正式制度对西部民族地区城镇化的影响进行分析。并同时进行了化解路径的选择，探索出城镇化进程中非正式制度创新的具体途径。路径包括建设新型现代文化、消除宗族势力、妥善处理宗教问题、塑造新型道德观念、加强民众价值观的引导等5个方面。结合“2014年云南晋宁事件”的分析，得出政府因素既是影响城镇化群体性冲突的深层因素，也是化解冲突的关键要素。. 本课题重点解决了以下三个问题。首先，对民族地区城镇化群体受到冲击而产生的同步化“脆弱性”做出识别；其次，刻画出民族地区城镇化群体性事件中的非正式制度因子；第三，提出正式制度与非正式制度形成的制度合力模型。我们对以上三个关键难题提出了在发展规划决策、项目投资决策、拆迁协商、赔偿安置、就业安置、户籍体系、社保体系、体制改革等方面的制度方案，及其对事件过程中的舆情监测、现场处置、规范执法、疏导安抚、恢复安置、法制教育等方面进行了系统性的制度建议。