基于适应性主体动态博弈的蓝碳交易机制研究

Tapping the increased "sink" potential of blue carbon will help address climate change, protect biodiversity and achieve the sustainable development goals. From the perspective of ecological capitalization, it is urgent for China to integrate blue carbon into the existing carbon trading system and realize the capitalization loop of blue carbon resources, so as to solve the long-term capital misallocation and financing constraints in the development and utilization of blue carbon. According to the complexity, adaptability, nonlinearity, diversity and uncertainty of the establishment of blue carbon trading market, this project introduces the theory of complex adaptation system into the study of blue carbon trading realization and price formation process. First, the types of participants were summarized through survey visits and structured interviews, and the behavioral characteristics of different types of subjects were quantified. This provides a numerical reference for the construction and simulation of the decision-making model of the trading behavior of the subject. Secondly, integrate the supply potential of blue carbon trading, estimate the demand gap of carbon sink under different trading mechanisms, and calculate the matching index of supply and demand of blue carbon trading. The purpose of doing so is to provide the strategic basis for the participants to choose the trading mechanism. Finally, a blue carbon trading behavior decision model based on Stackelberg game process is constructed based on the above quantitative indicators and strategy combination to simulate the impact of different types of subject behavior decisions on the blue carbon price. The above process provides decision reference for the design of blue carbon trading system.

挖掘海洋碳汇(蓝碳)的固碳增汇潜力，有助于完善国际气候治理体系，补充减缓行动方案，实现生物多样性保护和可持续发展等目标。我国亟需将蓝碳纳入现有碳交易体系，完成蓝碳资源的资本化闭环，以解决蓝碳保护修复领域长期的资本误置和融资约束。本项目依据蓝碳交易市场的复杂性、适应性、非线性、多样性和不确定性，将复杂适应系统理论应用于蓝碳交易机制设计研究。通过调研访谈确立适应性主体类型，量化包括决策空间和效用函数在内的主体行为特征，以及宏观经济政策、国际市场以及突发事件等外部环境因素，为适应性主体交易行为决策模型构建和仿真提供数值参考；其次，借鉴容量耦合模型，构建蓝碳交易供需的匹配指数，为主体对交易机制的选择提供策略依据；最后，构建基于适应性主体动态博弈的蓝碳交易行为决策模型，并对整个交易过程进行数值模拟和仿真，从机制设计和制度衔接层面为我国如何开展蓝碳交易试点，进行蓝碳交易实践，提供政策建议和决策参考。

挖掘蓝碳资源的固碳增汇潜力，有助于完善国际气候治理体系，保证气候行动的生态完整性，实现生物多样性保护和海洋可持续发展等多重效益联动,是碳达峰碳中和战略背景下实现生态碳汇增量的有效抓手之一。我国亟需通过蓝碳市场的建设，推动蓝碳资源资本化进程，以解决蓝碳资源保护修复领域长期的资本误置和融资约束。本项目依据蓝碳交易市场的复杂性、适应性、非线性、多样性和不确定性，将复杂适应系统理论应用于蓝碳交易机制设计研究。首先是在生态资源资本化理论的基础上，搭建了我国蓝碳市场建设的理论框架，为建设蓝碳市场的总体思路提供理论支撑。其次，分别就产权确权、技术创新、价值核算、交易机制、运营投资等核心制度安排进行系统分析，提出加快海域使用权立体分权制度改革，探索相应产权激励机制；加大蓝碳科学的基础研究和技术创新，形成与市场需求相匹配的技术供给；完善蓝碳资源动态监测体系，建立相关资产核算和管理台账制度；发挥政府市场培育优势，推进蓝碳示范项目和案例研究；推进蓝碳纳入碳交易体系，探索更多蓝色金融创新模式等政策建议。最后，通过调研访谈确立适应性主体类型，量化包括决策空间和效用函数在内的主体行为特征，以及宏观经济政策、国际市场以及突发事件等外部环境因素，为处于不同发展阶段或不同产品/服务类型的项目提供差异化的交易机制选择，为蓝碳市场建设中的交易路径提供决策参考。