居民储蓄结构化管理模式及风险保障机制研究——基于政府管理视角

Abstract: From the perspective of government management, taking into account of the background of the existing enormous amount of household bank deposit and lack of domestic consumption, this project will take the chance of need of money during urbanization process, obverse the positive feedback of "saving-investment-consumption-growth" with amplifying effect, and explore the important role of the saving behavior of household as well as how it exactly works. Based on the theory of public economics and the hypothesis of rational actor and using both systematic method and structured method, we study the association mechanism between government management and the saving behavior of household, from three aspects of motives, scale and investment channels of household saving. We use multi-period consumption model to quantify the motives of household saving, use Ramsey model to compute the proper scale, deposit insurance system to manage the proper scale of bank deposit, and KMV model to assess government credit scale. After that, we propose the proper government management mechanism, to make sure that individual rationality is persistent with collective rationality. Finally, we establish the system dynamics model to analyze government management and the saving behavior of household. Whether the positive feedback of "saving-invest-consumption-growth" works well, can be used to assess the effective of pattern of government managing household saving with structure method. This project is a study about cross subject of government management and market behavior, and can be a new thinking and approach for better government management.

本项目从政府管理角度，以我国巨额居民银行储蓄和内需不足为背景，城市化或城镇化建设对资金的需求为契机，以宏观经济运行中的"储蓄-投资-消费-增长正反馈放大机制"为参考系统，观察"居民储蓄行为"在系统中的重要地位和作用机理。依据公共经济学理论和理性人假设，运用系统论思想和结构化分析方法，从居民储蓄动机、储蓄规模和储蓄形式三个维度，研究政府管理行为和居民储蓄行为之间的关联机制及规律。拟运用跨期消费模型和多元回归模型度量居民储蓄动机的强度，运用存款保额设定银行储蓄适度规模，运用KMV模型度量政府信用规模，运用系统论方法分析动机、规模、形式之间内在机制及与之相适应的政府管理行为的科学性，建立政府行为和居民储蓄行为系统动力学模型，检验政府对居民储蓄结构化管理模式的有效性。丰富了政府从居民储蓄行为的视角，调控经济的正反馈机制理论，为政府提供一种新的管理思路和方法。深化了政府管理经济学与市场行为的交叉研究

本课题以中国居民储蓄过高而消费不足为研究背景，借助公共经济学相关理论及系统论分析方法，分析了居民储蓄在宏观经济系统中的重要地位和作用机理，并从居民储蓄动机、储蓄规模和储蓄结构三个维度，探讨了政府管理行为和居民储蓄行为之间的关联机制及规律。本课题具体对发达国家政府对居民储蓄的结构化管理模式进行比较，分析并总结了居民储蓄动机、居民储蓄规模、国民储蓄结构的历史演化规律，从经济增长、人口结构、人口老龄化等多角度研究了居民储蓄率的影响因素，基于预防性居民储蓄动机建立了不确定性预期下居民储蓄的度量模型及机制，并且设计了居民最优储蓄率的度量模型。另外对存款保险制度与居民储蓄进行探讨研究，分析了存款保险制度采用与设计的影响因素，并基于银行风险承担最小化探讨存款保险限额的设定。从居民储蓄投资结构出发，将政府基金和商业资本同时介入城镇投资建设，在城市化或城镇化背景下研究了政府参与下的PPP模式风险分担与收益共享机制。本课题研究同时考虑了政府行为和居民储蓄行为，构建了“储蓄-投资-消费-增长正反馈放大机制”系统，验证了政府对居民储蓄结构化管理模式的有效性，深化了政府管理经济学与市场行为的交叉研究，从居民储蓄行为的视角为政府调控经济提供了一种新的管理思路和方法。