产能影响下的光伏供应链风险池效应研究

The production scale and the total output of China's photovoltaic industry has been ranking the first worldwide since 2007. However, due to the deterioration of the market environment and other reasons in recent years, a great quantity of PV products become unsalable and the risks in PV supply chain caused by excess production capacity have turned into the largest bottleneck against further development of China's PV industry. Therefore, it's quite urgent to explore the formation and function mechanisms as well as the evolution of the PV supply chain risks caused by production capacity, of which, nevertheless, systematic research is rarely seen. This project focuses on the risk pooling effect of PV supply chain, takes both the current status of the development of the PV industry and supply chain features, for instance supply chain structure, into consideration. A sequential game model is developed and deduced to discuss the impact of production capacity on the equilibriums of supply chain enterprises, and reveal its functioning conditions on the risk pooling effect of PV supply chain, so that advice on risk mitigation and investment returns increase for PV enterprises can be given; after excavating the demand variation rules, supply chain risk pooling effect and risk mitigation measures, the formulation mechanism of PV supply chain risk are quantitatively analyzed with the simulation methodology and risk pooling effects in different circumstances are evaluated, from which those decision makers in PV enterprises and PV industry are expected to gain a more comprehensive and profounder knowledge of the risk features and function mechanism of China's PV supply chain and receive more scientific and theory support in making enterprise strategy and industry policy.

我国光伏产业生产规模及产量自2007年后稳居世界第一。但近年来由于市场环境恶化等原因，光伏产品大量滞销，产能过剩引起的供应链风险已成为限制产业发展的最大瓶颈。因此，探索产能影响下光伏供应链风险的形成与作用机制及其演化规律成为产业面临的迫切问题，然而当前针对该问题的系统性研究十分薄弱。本项目以光伏供应链风险池效应为主题，将光伏产业发展现状与供应链结构等特征有机结合，建立序贯博弈模型探讨产能对供应链企业博弈均衡的影响，揭示产能对光伏供应链风险池效应的作用条件，为光伏企业规避风险、提高投资效益提供依据；挖掘光伏产品市场的需求变化规律、供应链风险池效应及避险措施，运用系统仿真定量分析光伏供应链风险的形成机制，评价不同环境下的风险池效应，有助于光伏企业决策者和产业决策制定者更全面、深入地了解我国光伏供应链风险特征和作用规律，为企业战略和扶持政策的制定提供科学理论支持。

本研究基于动态规划、实物期权以及决策者认知偏差等理论，对光伏供应链风险进行研究，旨在揭示供应链风险对决策的影响机制。. 首先对光伏发电企业投资决策进行实证分析。通过对“孪生”股票价格数据拟合ARMA(2,2)-GARCH(2,2)模型，比较不同波动率对应的最优临界值和最大机会价值，发现波动率对最优决策效果的影响较大。由此可见，将波动率纳入光伏发电企业投资决策研究有助于优化决策过程。. 其次对光伏发电企业风险投资决策模型的参数组合进行探究。讨论实物期权在光伏发电企业风险投资决策中的应用，通过实验设计的方法检验各因素对期权价值的影响程度，结果显示：对期权价值的影响由强到弱分别为波动率、无风险利率、项目资产价值和投资成本。. 进一步分析货币政策、不同光伏发电企业的信贷约束和研发生产项目投资决策。根据决策者认知偏差和分子动力学理论，在分析R&D项目中的实物期权特征和价值相互作用的基础上，研究货币政策对不同股权性质光伏发电企业的R&D项目投资决策的影响，并站在政府和光伏发电企业的角度，给出提高货币政策实施效果和企业创新能力的相关建议。. 接着提出近似评估法对光伏发电企业战略并购中的目标企业价值进行评估。此方法克服了完全市场条件下的实物期权法存在的假设不合理的缺陷。通过引入多布分解定理将资产价格分解为鞅和一个可预料的增过程，结合非完全市场信息的到达特点给出标的资产价格变动过程，利用Hilbert空间投影理论建立近似评估模型，分别在存在鞅测度和不存在鞅测度两种情况下对战略并购中的目标企业价值进行评估。. 最后还利用系统动力学、牛鞭效应以及博弈论相关知识，解决大型风力发电系统的配合目标和标杆电价、大规模风电并网的双供应源电力供应链牛鞭效应以及秸煤混燃技术下秸秆供应市场竞合战略的实现路径等问题。本研究丰富了光伏供应链风险的研究内容，也为光伏发电企业的决策提供了理论参考。