城乡金融统筹发展研究

Based on large-scale sampling survey on the current financial development of urban and rural areas in China’s typical regions, the present project makes in-depth, systematic, theoretical and empirical analysis on how to acquire coordination between financial development in urban and rural areas through integrated usage of financial geography, “financial constraints” theory, space economics and mathematical techniques. From the perspective of financial resourses allocation, the differences in financial development between urban and rural areas are measured. Empirical tests are made on the effects of financial imbalance and its key influence factors. The internal mechanism, implementation mechanism and the decision-making process of market players are studied. To explore the realization of coordinated urban-rural financial development, various aspects are examined such as innovation of coordinated urban-rural financial development system, the connectedness of urban-rural financial institutions, the connectedness of urban-rural financial markets, the connectedness of urban-rural financial data, financial market rules under Internet environment, development of new rural financial products that can break through the existing urban-rural differences, the construction of a mechanism that can offset or share rural financial risks and so on. System dynamics simulation model for balanced urban-rural financial development is built and dynamic simulation tests and policy simulation are undertaken. Targeted and workable policy measures and suggestions for coordinated urban-rural financial development are put forward.

本项目在对我国典型区域城乡金融发展状况进行较大规模的实地抽样调查的基础上，综合运用金融地理学、“金融约束”理论、空间经济学等理论和数理技术，围绕“如何实现城乡金融统筹发展”展开系统深入的理论与实证研究。从金融资源配置视角，对我国城乡金融发展差异进行测度，实证检验城乡金融非均衡发展效应及影响因素；探讨城乡金融统筹发展的内在机理、实现机制及各市场主体决策行为。从城乡金融协同发展制度创新、城乡金融机构联通、城乡金融市场联通、城乡金融信息连通、互联网环境下的金融市场规律、突破城乡既有差异状态下的涉农金融产品开发及涉农金融风险补偿与分担机制建设等方面研究城乡金融统筹发展的实现途径。研究建立城乡金融统筹发展系统的系统动力学仿真模型并进行动态仿真实验与政策模拟，为城乡金融统筹发展提出有针对性的、操作性强的政策措施和对策建议。

城乡发展不平衡不协调是我国当前经济社会发展存在的突出矛盾之一。统筹城乡发展，推动城乡发展一体化，是党中央为改变城乡二元结构、破解“三农”问题和全面建成小康社会而作出的重大决策。金融是现代经济的核心, 金融统筹发展是经济统筹发展的核心和保障。.本项目围绕“如何实现城乡金融统筹发展”展开系统深入的理论与实证研究：从金融资源配置视角，对我国城乡金融非均衡发展进行测度，实证检验城乡金融非均衡发展效应及影响因素；深入分析城乡金融统筹发展的内在机理、实现机制及各市场主体决策行为；实证测度城乡金融资源配置效率，并对我国区域金融资源配置效率进行比较研究，探讨其产生差异的原因；从政府功能定位、统筹城乡金融机构建设、统筹城乡金融市场建设、统筹城乡金融制度建设等方面研究提出城乡金融统筹发展的实现途径；为城乡金融统筹发展提出有针对性的、操作性强的政策措施和对策建议。.研究结果表明：中部六省的城乡金融发展均衡度逐年增强，六类金融要素在城乡间的差距大相径庭，城市地区远远优于农村地区；不过这些差距在逐步缩小，城乡金融发展正在从非均衡态向均衡态过渡。中部六省城乡金融发展极不均衡，城乡金融在各个要素上呈现右偏态重尾分布的非均衡发展特征，但整体上其发展差距逐年缩小，均衡性越来越强；各金融要素中，除金融发展规模差异外，其他解释变量都有助于提高整体金融均衡度；同时，它们对城乡金融均衡度的影响效应在不同区域、不同节点上呈现出差异化的动态演化规律，形成形态各异的趋势特征。我国整体金融资源配置效率较低主要是由于纯技术效率不足造成的，我国金融资源配置效率差异明显，且与经济发展水平存在一定相关性。.项目从政府功能定位、统筹城乡金融机构建设、统筹城乡金融市场建设、统筹城乡金融制度建设等方面提出促进我国城乡金融资源均衡配置的政策建议，为国家统筹推进城乡金融与经济协调发展政策制定提供科学的实证依据，具有重要的理论价值和应用价值。