基于非概率风险评估理论的特种设备设计方法研究

In recent years, there has been an increased awareness of the potential risk of the special equipments. However, the potential risk of the special equipment are merely analyzed and estimated after the design of the equipment, which could not be brought into the design procedures in now available design methods. In order to control the risk of the special equipments, the project presents a proposed methodology based on risk assessment theory which the special equipment could be estimated on basis of the Non-probabilistic theory. The failure mechanism, failure mode and its identification method of the equipments are deeply researched. The equipment's reliability and the design parameters about the failure mode are attained by building the non-probabilistic model. Establishing the risk assessing model, the quantitative assessing system which consist of the reliability to the economic and the social benefit, the identification of the risk factor and the multiple risk assessment would be achieved. Moreover, planning the importance of design parameters on basis of the equipment's risk, the safety of the structure would be greatly confirmed. The risk level and the reliability distribution method would be given in detail. Through resolving the reliability, risk assessment and design based on risk, the project provides the design theory and method for the equipments.

特种设备的安全风险已受到社会的广泛关注，但现有的设计方法还不能将风险纳入设计过程，只能在设计完成后对特种设备进行风险分析与评估，这显然不利于特种设备的风险控制。鉴于此，研究基于非概率可靠性理论的风险评估理论及基于风险的特种设备设计方法。在特种设备不确定性研究的基础上，研究设备的失效机理和失效模式及识别方法，建立特种设备非概率可靠性模型，获得设备可靠性，确定失效相关的设计参数；构建特种设备风险评估模型，可靠度与经济效益、社会效益的定量评估体系，实现风险因子的识别与风险综合评估；基于风险评估规划设计参数重要度，确定结构的安全程度，给出设计中结构风险级别确定和可靠度分配方法，实现设备风险评估与设计方法的统一。本项目面向特种设备重点解决可靠性分析、风险评估和基于风险的设计问题，为特种设备的低风险设计提供理论基础和方法。

结题摘要.特种设备的安全风险已受到社会的广泛关注，但现有的设计方法还不能将风险纳入设计过程，只能在设计完成后对特种设备进行风险分析与评估，这显然不利于特种设备的风险控制。为了解决基于风险的特种设备设计问题，本项目主要研究：（1）结合特种设备特点，对特种设备零部件钢丝绳、销轴连接、轴承寿命、补偿器特性、汽车起重机的侧向失稳机理等可靠性影响参数进行分析研究。（2）分析特种设备的不确定性参数，基于非概率理论构建特种设备结构的可靠性模型。（3）利用贝叶斯理论和灵敏度分析方法，计算基于非概率理论的特种设备结构的失效概率，确定各失效原因的重要度，对各失效原因的设计参数进行局部灵敏度与全局灵敏度分析。（4）确定结构失效后果，研究特种设备风险评估方法，构建风险评估模型，实现对特种设备的风险评估。（5）基于风险研究特种设备的设计方法，分析特种设备基于风险的设计参数影响，指导结构设计。.项目以汽车起重机起重臂为例，基于非概率理论对特种设备进行可靠性分析、风险评估和基于风险的设计进行分析研究，试图推动基于风险的特种设备结构设计理论方法与应用进展。.