基于AIS数据的桥梁船撞倒塌概率风险评估方法研究

The existing assessment methods of collapse probability of bridge under ship collision do not consider the actually navigation ship in a particular area. Base on statistic data of real navigation ship by decoding data of the automatic identification system, a new approach is proposed for assessing the collapse probability of bridge under ship collision. Firstly, the automatic identification system data is decoded, which is used to assess the probability distributions of ship type, weight, velocity, drift angle by chi square test. The representative ship types are chosen based on different acceptance criterions. Using the numerical and experimental analysis, the force-indent curves for the ship bow impacting bridge pier are obtained, which is used to fit the time force function. The failure checking of bridge under different impact loads are calculated using numerical analysis, which is to fit collapse probability curves of bridge under once ship impact. The physical model of collapse probability of bridge under ship impact is proposed base on AIS data and AASHTO method. According to the risk acceptable criteria, the risk assessment method is induced from the real situation of navigation ship。 The conclusion at the present study can be used as reference for the anti-collision design and risk assessment of bridge.

针对现有桥梁船撞概率评估方法无法考虑特定区域实际船舶通航数据的情况，拟提出一种以船舶自动识别系统（AIS）为基础并考虑实际通航船舶信息的桥梁船撞倒塌概率风险评估方法。通过对AIS数据进行解析、筛选，采用卡方检验获得有效的通航船舶类型、吨级、速度、偏航角等参数的概率分布；基于不同接受准则确定代表船舶，并结合数值模拟和模型实验方式提出考虑真实通航船舶特征的桥梁船撞P-a曲线，获得时间历程载荷函数。通过数值模拟计算桥梁在不同碰撞载荷作用下是否失效，从而获得该桥梁单次撞击倒塌概率曲线。构建基于AIS数据和AASHTO模型的桥梁船撞倒塌概率风险分析物理模型，并根据风险可接受准则，提出基于实际通航船舶数据的桥梁船撞风险评估方法。研究成果可为今后我国制定桥梁船撞设计规范提供理论基础和数据参考。

本项目针对现有桥梁船撞概率评估方法没有考虑桥梁航区实际船舶通航数据的情况，提出了一种以AIS(船舶自动识别系统)数据为基础考虑实际通航船舶信息的桥梁船撞倒塌概率风险评估方法。首先收集了桥区通航船舶的AIS数据，编写了解码程序并进行了数据解析、筛选。采用卡方检验获得有效的通航船舶的类型、吨级、速度、偏航角等参数的概率分布，为桥梁船撞概率分析提供输入参数。基于接受准则确定代表船舶，基于相似理论设计了典型船艏比例模型，并进行了压溃试验，推导了准静力下不同船艏类型的压溃力理论公式，获得合理的数值模型参数。基于验证的数值模型，模拟了桥梁船撞过程，研究不同桥墩模型在不同船型、吨位下的动力响应，获得了最大和平均船撞力，推导了等效静力公式。根据桥梁单次撞击倒塌概率曲线，基于AIS数据和AASHTO模型构建桥梁船撞倒塌概率风险分析物理模型，根据风险可接受准则，获得基于实际通航船舶数据的桥梁船撞风险评估方法。研究成果为今后我国制定桥梁船撞设计规范提供理论基础。