农户贷款利率改革的福利分析——以农村信用社为例

In the past, in order to support rural development, the Government of the rural financial institutions has taken stringent control of interest rates to try to reduce agricultural production costs. However, any price policy is likely to lead to distortions in the allocation of resources, so scarce resources cannot be fully utilized and resulting in efficiency losses, there is no exception. Moreover, the limited interest rates can inevitably affect the number of loans, if farmers can really benefit from it becomes a problem worthy of study..Based on the empirical study of rural credit cooperatives and applying contingent valuation method (CVM) with farm household data, this paper discusses the impact of liberalizing interest rate on farmer's welfare and the influence factors of farmer's welfare. And it wants to discuss the impact of liberalizing interest rate to different segments of farmers decomposed by proprietor of resources for production and its supporting role in rural. And this paper will explore some other reforming ways of farmers and areas which will not ease the financial repression by liberalizing interest rates. It can provide scientific policy suggestions for improving the rural financial system and scientific basis for analysis some similar problems..In addition, the reform has just started a few years, human behavior is not stable. Therefore, we not only can get a more accurate demand data, but also can explore human behavior and its stability by this later tracking survey.

过去为了支持农村发展，政府对农村金融机构采取严厉的利率管制以降低农户生产成本。但是，任何限价政策都有可能导致资源配置的扭曲，使稀缺的资源无法得到充分利用，从而产生效率损失；受管制的贷款利率也不例外。不仅如此，对利率的限制必然影响贷款的数量，农户是否能真正从中受益就成了一个值得研究的问题。.本项目预以农村信用社为例，采用条件价值评估法获取农户微观数据，探讨放开利率对各地农户福利的影响，以及各地福利变动的影响因素；按照资源禀赋划分农户阶层，考察利率改革对不同阶层农户福利的影响，并分析对三农的支持作用；探讨无法采用放开利率来缓解金融抑制的农户与地区的改革方式，为完善农村金融体制提供政策选择，并为分析类似问题提供科学依据。.另外，改革刚开始的几年，农户行为并不稳定，因此，本项目拟对前期研究进行追踪调查，不但可以获得更准确的需求数据和福利结果，还可以对比前期调查结果来探讨农户行为及其稳定性。

农村金融对促进农村地区经济发展、提高农户家庭收入及其福利水平有着重要作用。20世纪50年代后期以来，中国一直在农村地区实行金融市场管制，控制贷款利率并限制民间金融自由发展。但是，长期的管制必然扭曲资源配置并产生效率损失，最终导致农村金融资源匮乏、资金供给不足等问题，这在很大程度上加重了农户信贷约束并制约了农村经济发展。本项目采用农户微观调查数据，分析农户借贷行为以及市场化改革对农户家庭福利的影响等问题。研究结论表明，农户借贷行为受农户个体家庭特征、收入与支出、借贷用途以及地区差别等因素的影响；新一轮改革能够显著提高农户家庭福利水平，信贷参与程度也对农户家庭福利有着显著正向影响，但主要参与者并非农村低收入群体。研究呼吁进一步开放农村金融市场，积极探索符合“三农”特点的金融产品和信贷技术，提高低收入农户的信贷参与程度。