梯度发展对流域水量-水质-水生态的协迫作用机制与调控研究—以东江流域为例

To explore the economic and social development to intimidation mechanism of water ecology and water environment is an important and scientific foundation work as well as a pressing task. Taking Dongjiang River Basin as a study case and using the development of city gradient as an entry point, this program attempts to identify sources of pollution and its intensity as well as analyze the space-time evolution law of water environment quality according to the watershed drainage characteristics and the development of regional society and economy. Remote sensing data, field investigation and historical materials are also applied in the program, which attempts to reveal the response relationship of ‘developmental level-pollution load-environmental quality’ from macro perspectives. Meanwhile, the relationship between development of economic gradient and water resources quantity is also discussed in this program. Four basins with different gradient of development are selected and the Hydrological Simulation Program—Fortran (HSPF) model is also used to quantificationally assess the response to land-use change. In this program, the response content mainly includes runoff, sediment and Nonpoint source pollution load. Evidently, the gradient development of a basin impacts greatly on the system of water resources quantity- water quality- water ecology. The synergistic effect and restrictive relation between them, without doubt, is a studying difficulty and then the program aims at solving this problem. Finally, the program proposes an adjusting and controlling pattern of river quality management based on total water resources control and river ecological integrity. The results of the program can provide scientific basis for the basin economic development, water environment protection and water construction of ecological civilization.

探究经济社会发展对水生态、水环境胁迫作用机制，是流域水环境科学管理的重大科学基础和紧迫任务。本项目以城市梯度发展为切入点，选取东江流域为例，利用遥感、实地调查及历史监测资料等多种数据源，识别污染源分布及源强，分析流域水环境质量的时空演变规律，分析流域经济社会梯度发展规律，采用分类树从宏观角度定量揭示“发展水平-污染负荷-环境质量”之间的响应关系，揭示经济梯度发展与水量的演化关系；选取不同发展梯度的4个小流域，采用流域分布式水文模型（HSPF），从微观角度定量评估流域径流、泥沙和非点源污染负荷对土地利用变化的响应，解析流域梯度发展对水量-水质-生态系统的协同作用与制约关系难题。在此基础上，提出基于总量控制和河流生态完整性的水源型河流优质管理与调控模式，为流域水环境优质管理及水生态文明建设提供科学依据。

探究经济社会发展对水生态、水环境胁迫作用机制，是流域水环境科学管理的重大科学基础和紧迫任务。本项目以流域管理和城市梯度发展为切入点，选取东江流域为例，利用遥感、实地调查及历史监测资料等多种数据源，识别污染源分布及源强，分析流域水环境质量的时空演变规律，分析流域经济社会梯度发展规律，采用分类树从宏观角度定量揭示“发展水平-污染负荷-环境质量”之间的响应关系，揭示经济梯度发展与水量的演化关系。选取不同发展梯度的上、中、下游，采用流域分布式水文模型（HSPF），从微观角度定量评估流域径流、泥沙和非点源污染负荷对土地利用变化的响应，解析流域梯度发展对水量-水质-生态系统的协同作用与制约关系难题。在此基础上，提出基于总量控制和河流生态完整性的水源型河流优质管理与调控模式，为流域水环境优质管理及水生态文明建设提供科学依据。截止到目前，本研究共发表SCI论文6篇（一区top1篇，二区1篇，四区4篇）和国内核心期刊论文3篇。此外，待发表SCI论文3篇。培养研究生3名，达到了预期的研究目标。