中国天然气管网空间溢出效应与资源配置路径优化研究

The two market boundaries formed by administrative monopolies and vertical integrated companies have fragmented the integrity of China's natural gas pipeline network. The negative externality of the conflict between these two borders was spatially spilled and transmitted in the pipeline network space, which led to the distortion and inefficiency of natural gas market reform. The conflict was difficult to coordinate, which caused the market-oriented reform of China's natural gas pipeline network to face difficulties. Therefore, under the ground of combination between the theory of competency in the natural monopoly industries and the “central-periphery” theory, this study analyzes the characteristics of market spatial consumption in market and the pipeline network structure as well as its evolutionary trends based on spatial econometric and boundary effect models, furthermore to identify and extract the key obstacles impact of technologies, markets, institutions and mechanisms and so on. The “triangular” market theoretical model is proposed to imitate the monopolistic competition in gas market based on non-linear complementarity, and to numerically simulate and exploit the “competition and cooperation” relationship of market players to reveal the transmission of spillover effects within pipeline networks and especially the internal causes of boundary conflict; The “Enterprise-Market-Government” trinity spatial equilibrium model is established to simulate and evaluate the effects of pipeline network reform policy design under the background of various scenarios. Furthermore, this model is used to explore the incentive and compatible mechanisms to eliminate market boundaries, and search the optimal route and policy supply of the pipeline network reforms suited to national environment in china. have strengthened the theoretical basis for China's natural gas pipeline network reform. These will provide scientific references for the reforms of the pipeline network in China and in addition to supply the China's plan for natural gas market reform in similar countries.

行政垄断和一体化厂商垄断形成的两个市场边界割裂了中国天然气管网市场的完整性。这两个边界之间冲突的负外部性在管网空间溢出和传导，导致了市场配置扭曲和低效；而冲突难以协调，造成了中国天然气管网市场化改革步履维艰。为此，本研究将自然垄断产业可竞争理论和“中心-边缘”理论相结合，基于市场消费空间和管网结构特征及其演变趋势的分析，运用空间计量、边界效应模型识别并提取影响管网溢出效应的技术、市场、体制和机制等关键障碍；采用非线性互补理论，建立“三角”市场垄断竞争理论模型，数值模拟并解析市场主体“竞合”关系，揭示管网溢出效应的传导机理和边界冲突的内因；构建“企业-市场-政府”三位一体的空间均衡模型，情景模拟并评价管网改革政策设计的效果，探索消解市场边界的激励相容机制，寻求适合国情的管网改革最优路径和政策供给，夯实中国天然气管网改革理论基础，为管网改革提供科学参考，也为相似国家天然气市场改革提供中国方案。

消解行政垄断边界和厂商垄断市场边界之间的冲突、推动市场从分割中走向整合，是中国天然气市场化改革政策设计的理论需要和现实需求。现有研究大多仍然沿袭自然垄断产业可竞争理论分析框架和范式，来探索市场分拆重构路径和制度安排，遗漏了财政分权背景下地方政府竞争这一关键变量对政策设计的影响。为此，课题综合运用垄断竞争、可竞争、自然资源耗竭、制度经济学和环境规制等理论，追踪天然气商品和公共物品属性在市场配置中的分离与统一过程，来解构行政垄断边界和市场边界之间的矛盾和冲突来源，试图在不断变迁的经济社会发展情景中把握天然气管网空间溢出机理和内在规律，为新时代我国天然气资源配置路径优化提供政策启示。.本课题建立了天然气管网空间溢出效应的计量和实证分析框架，把政府环境规制竞争作为关键变量纳入空间杜宾模型、边界效应模型、调节效应模型和logistic模型中，利用这些模型提取了影响管网空间溢出效应的政策、技术和经济等关键因素，识别出政府竞争策略对管网结构变化自适应变迁路径，微观上揭示出市场边界和行政垄断边界在网络节点市场的竞合关系和激励相容机理，辨识出这两个边界之间的竞争与合作是天然气市场自组织演化的驱动力，为我国天然气市场从“分割中走向整合”提供了理论解释和前景预测。.课题深入剖析了天然气产业链供应链上“产、供、运、销、用”市场主体的博弈行为和价值追求，把环境规制竞争强度作为天然气逆需求函数参数，以此刻画地方政府竞争对消费曲线的影响。进而，课题基于非线性互补理论，建立了“企业、市场、政府”三位一体的空间均衡MCP模型，从资源供给约束、市场结构、环境规制和财政补贴等情景模拟分析天然气管网溢出效应的传导路径，设计了资源租金、垄断租金和拥堵租金在市场主体之间分配的激励相容机制，给出了市场边界和行政垄断边界冲突消解的策略与政策选择，为我国天然气市场化改革政策设计和良治之方提供了科学的决策参考。