基于复杂网络与动态博弈的我国稀土国际贸易最优策略研究

Confronting the complexity of international economy, political wrangling, and the restriction of WTO rules after losing the lawsuit claiming China’s policy on rare earths export quota against WTO in 2014, the maximization of economic and political interests through the game between China and countries with great influence on international rare earths trade on the basis of the world’s future rare earths trade pattern plays an important part in the strengthen of position for China in the international rare earths trade. Based on the complex network model, this paper focuses on the prediction of the collectivize pattern of international rare earths trade, the identification of the influence of rare earths trade counties in the future, and the discussion of the optimal strategy of rare earths trade in China through the dynamic game between China and countries with great influence on international rare earths trade. This theoretically and methodologically innovative research mainly gives special attention to three scientific issues: (i) the prediction and analysis of the world’s future rare earths trade pattern on the basis of complex network link prediction and group partitioning algorithm model; (ii) the identification of the influence of rare earths trade countries through the construction of multidimensional analysis framework using complex network centrality theory; and (iii) the discussion of the optimal strategy of rare earths export in China from several aspects, such as resource tax, environment tax and yield control, through the construction of a game model between China and countries with great influence on international rare earths trade with some factors, such as economy and politics, under consideration. The results of this research enable a further development of the theory and research methods of international rare earths trade, providing theoretical basis and practical guides for the practice of rare earths trade in China.

2014年我国稀土出口配额政策在WTO败诉，面对复杂的国际经济、政治角力以及WTO规则的约束，我国如何能在把握未来世界稀土贸易格局的基础上，通过与稀土贸易中影响力较大国家间的博弈获得经济、政治利益最大化，这对提升我国在国际稀土贸易中的地位具有重要意义。本课题基于复杂网络模型预测稀土国际贸易集团化格局，识别未来各稀土贸易国影响力，通过我国与稀土贸易中影响力较大的国家间的动态博弈，探讨我国稀土贸易最优策略。本研究重点解决三个科学问题，实现理论与方法创新：①基于复杂网络链路预测和集团划分算法模型预测、分析未来稀土国际贸易格局；②应用复杂网络中心性理论构建多维分析框架，识别稀土贸易国影响力；③综合考虑经济、政治等因素，构建我国与稀土贸易影响力较大国家间的博弈模型，从资源环境税、产量控制等角度探讨我国稀土贸易最优策略。本研究成果将拓展稀土国际贸易理论和方法研究，为我国稀土贸易提供理论依据和实践指导。

2014年我国稀土出口配额政策在WTO败诉，面对复杂的国际经济、政治角力以及WTO规则的约束，我国如何能在把握未来世界稀土贸易格局的基础上，通过与稀土贸易中影响力较大国家间的博弈获得经济、政治利益最大化，这对提升我国在稀土国际贸易中的地位具有重要意义。本课题基于复杂网络模型预测稀土国际贸易集团化格局，识别未来各稀土贸易国影响力，探讨我国稀土贸易最优策略。本研究重点解决三个科学问题，实现理论与方法创新：①基于复杂网络链路预测和集团划分算法模型预测、分析未来稀土国际贸易格局；②应用复杂网络中心性理论构建多维分析框架，识别稀土贸易国影响力；③综合考虑经济、政治等因素，从资源环境税、产量控制等角度探讨我国稀土贸易最优策略。本研究成果将拓展稀土国际贸易理论和方法研究，为我国稀土贸易提供理论依据和实践指导。