分阶段流迁视角下外来务工人员住房路径研究：机理与实证

“Pseudo urbanization” is a unique issue during the rapid urbanization in China. Faced with the ageing problems of local residents and constantly declining of floating population, facilitating migrant workers to integrate into urban areas was regarded to be a key solution. Housing affects the urban integration of migrant workers in a pivotal way. Based on characteristics of family migration and step-wise migration, there is barely any research investigating the housing pathway of migrant workers or the mechanism at the household level. An in-depth investigation, focusing on household strategies, urban integration, housing pathway, and its mechanism, will be conducted based on different stages of migration (i.e., first-time migration, follow-up migration, and settle down). Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration will be taken as the study area. Firstly, the evolution mechanism of migrant workers’ household strategies and the affecting factors will be looked into, through the lens of New Economics of Labor Migration and Life Course Approach. Secondly, index reflecting the urban integration of migrant workers will be constructed, the value changes of which will be looked into. Thirdly, rationales underlying migrant workers’ housing career and housing ladder will be examined, through the lens of Housing Pathway Theory and Life Course Paradigm. Lastly, a model reflecting the mechanism of housing pathway of migrant workers will be constructed, and the validity will be confirmed. The results of this project are expected to facilitate rational policy making. The urban integration of migrant workers will be improved accordingly.

“伪城镇化”是我国快速城镇化进程中特有的问题。伴随着户籍人口老龄化及流动人口总量逐年减少的趋势，推动外来务工人员的城市融入被视为解决以上问题的关键。住房是影响外来务工人员城市融入的关键。基于人口流动家庭化特点与逐步迁移理论，目前少有研究以家庭为单位，分流迁阶段动态考察我国外来务工人员的住房路径及其形成机制。本课题以长三角城市群为例，基于不同的流迁阶段（初始流动、后续流动、最终定居），分别从家庭策略、城市融入、住房路径及其形成机制方面开展深入研究。首先，基于新迁移经济学理论与生命历程方法，研究外来务工人员家庭策略的演变机制及其影响因素。然后，建立外来务工人员城市融入的指标体系，并刻画其阶段变化。第三，基于住房路径理论与生命历程范式，考察外来务工人员住房历程与住房阶梯。最后，构建外来务工人员住房路径形成机制模型，并进行实证检验。课题成果可辅助政府科学决策，提高外来务工人员的城市融入水平。

住房是影响外来务工人员城市融入的关键。目前少有研究动态考察我国外来务工人员的住房路径及其形成机制。本课题深入分析了我国外来务工人员的家庭策略、社会融入水平、住房路径形成机制以及住房路径产生的影响。首先，深入分析了我国外来务工人员的家庭策略。在住房策略方面，对我国东中西部地区外来务工人员的住房选择及其影响因素进行了比较，发现不同地区、不同雇佣类型的外来务工人员的住房选择显著不同。在教育策略方面，分析了子女教育对外来务工人员住房决策的影响。发现子女教育决策对住房决策有显著影响。其次，分析了不同级别城市已婚外来务工人员的社会融入状况。发现一线城市已婚外来务工人员的社会融合程度显著较低。住房压力对已婚外来务工人员的社会融入有显著负向影响，然而仅在一线和三线城市表现显著。再次，深入分析了我国外来务工人员的住房路径形成机制以及住房路径产生的影响。构建了住房产权路径、住房面积路径以及住房质量路径三个维度指标。发现：影响三个维度住房路径的因素显著不同；住房产权路径、住房质量路径对外来务工人员的经济融合有显著影响；住房面积路径与住房质量路径对外来务工人员的主观幸福感有显著正向影响。课题成果可辅助政府科学决策，提高外来务工人员的城市融入水平和主观幸福感。