基于PSR与变权模型的我国省域低碳发展综合评价与优化研究：以低碳交通试点省区为例

In recent years, transportation has become one of fastest growth industries for energy consumption and carbon emission in China. Because the transportation plays a basic role in the national economy, low-carbon transport planning should be introduced into regional low-carbon development comprehensive evaluation frame to explore. This project designs a comprehensive evaluation index system based on identifying systematically influencing factors of regional low-carbon development and their action mechanism. Then, variable weights theory and method is introduced into the study and incorporated with methods of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM), allowing a dynamic comprehensive evaluation model of provincial low-carbon development in China based on variable weights built, which is able to reflect low-carbon development features and demands of different types of regions. By using the hybrid model, this project explores the development environment of provincial low-carbon transport, diagnoses problems of provinces in low-carbon development, and proposes corresponding optimized paths and countermeasures. The potential academic contributions of this project can be summarized as: 1) We introduce press-state-response(PSR) model into the study on the regional low-carbon development evaluation, which will provide new methodological support for designing evaluation index system. 2) This project establishes a comprehensive evaluation model of regional low-carbon development based on variable weights. Compared with existing evaluation models based on constant weights, the proposed model strengthens examining the balance and coordination among the low-carbon development elements, and embodies the temporal and spatial differences on the low-carbon development. 3) We put forward a low-carbon transport development environment analysis method, and a diagnostic and optimum method for provincial low-carbon development in China based on comprehensive evaluation, which are applied to the case study on the low-carbon transport experiment provinces, thus providing a new analysis tool for the local low-carbon transport planning.

近年，交通运输已成为我国能耗与碳排放增长最快的部门之一。由于其在国民经济中的基础地位，需要将低碳交通纳入区域低碳发展综合评价框架下予以考察。本项目系统辨识区域低碳发展的影响要素及作用机制，设计综合评价指标体系；引入变权理论与方法，与多属性决策方法相融合，并考虑不同类型区域低碳发展的特点，构建我国省域低碳发展变权动态综合评价模型；利用该模型，考察省域低碳交通发展环境，诊断各省区低碳发展问题，提出优化路径与改进对策。本项目的学术贡献体现在三个方面：1）将压力-状态-响应模型引入区域低碳发展评价研究，为指标体系的设计提供了新的方法支撑；2）构建了区域低碳发展的变权评价模型，相比现有研究，强化了对低碳发展要素间均衡协调性的考察，并能体现低碳发展的时空差异；3）提出基于变权评价的低碳交通发展环境分析与低碳发展问题诊断、优化方法，应用于对低碳交通试点省区的考察，为各地低碳交通规划提供了新的分析工具。

近年，交通运输已成为我国能耗与碳排放增长最快的部门之一。由于其在国民经济中的基础地位，需要将低碳交通纳入区域低碳发展综合评价框架下予以考察。本项目系统辨识区域低碳发展的影响要素及作用机制，设计综合评价指标体系；引入变权理论与方法，与多属性决策方法相融合，并且考虑不同类型区域低碳发展的特点，构建了我国省域低碳发展变权动态综合评价模型。利用该模型，对2011-2015年各年我国30个省区的低碳发展状况进行了综合评价，基于评价结果进一步分析了不同地区低碳发展的问题和低碳交通发展面临的环境，据此提出了优化路径与改进对策。主要研究结论：1）较之于常权模型，变权综合评价提供了更多的评价信息，能够将不同低碳发展要素间的协调性反映到评价结果中。2）低碳经济在我国具有较强的区域不平衡性，发展水平由东部沿海向西部地区逐渐降低，近年来区域间差异有缩小的态势。3）区域低碳经济的发展为发展低碳交通提供了重要支撑，东部地区应通过科技创新与管理能力优化弥补低碳资源相对不足的缺陷，中西部地区应充分利用新一代信息技术推进低碳、智能融合发展，形成后发优势。4）当前新经济条件下各地区应以推动低碳智能交通融合发展作为优化低碳交通发展的切入点和新动能，东部地区应加大高新技术创新和示范引领力度，西部地区应全面提升低碳交通的基础条件和能力水平。本项目的学术贡献体现在三个方面：1）将压力-状态-响应模型引入区域低碳发展评价研究，为指标体系的设计提供了新的方法支撑。2）构建了区域低碳发展的变权评价模型，相比现有研究，强化了对低碳发展要素间均衡协调性的考察，并能体现低碳发展的时空差异。3）提出了基于变权评价的低碳交通发展环境分析与问题诊断、优化方法，应用于对低碳交通试点省区的考察，为各地低碳交通规划提供了新的分析工具。