气候变化框架下的能-水关联系统建模、优化和政策模拟

Energy and water are interdependent and closely linked. Facing with pressures and challenges of fast economic development, shortage of energy supply, scarcity of water resource and climate change, the world has focused on joint energy and water solutions to mitigate and adapt climate change from a new perspective of energy-water nexus. This project firstly will measure the energy-water nexus by using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method which is based on uncertainty analysis, and establish an energy-water nexus database of energy for water and water for energy in China. Secondly, the project will explore the coupling mechanism of energy system and water system to build up an integrated optimization model of energy-water system on the basis of TIMES, i.e. TIMES-EWN model to illustrate the interacting principal among energy, water and climate change. Thirdly, taking three areas with different features in China as examples, this project will design the policy mix in a two-dimensional framework for achieving some targets, such as mitigating climate change, energy and water saving, emission reduction etc. This TIMES-EWN model will be applied under different policy mix to obtain technology choices and potential, carbon emissions, pollutant emissions, the energy consumption for water system and water consumption for energy system etc during 2010-2035. The sustainable development path energy-water nexus system will be obtained, and the policy implication on mitigation and adaption of climate change will be put forward as well.

能源和水密不可分，在经济发展、能源紧张、水资源稀缺、气候变化等共同压力下，各国已开始从能-水关系（Energy-Water Nexus）这一新视角探究能水整合方案以减缓和适应气候变化。本项目拟利用基于不确定性分析的全生命周期评价方法计算我国能源生产的水利用系数和水生产的能源消耗系数，形成基础性能-水关系参数数据库；并在此基础上，设计能源系统与水系统的耦合机制，构建基于TIMES的能-水关联系统综合优化模型（TIMES-EWN），探索能-水关系与气候变化的内在联系；并以我国三类典型区域为例，在二维框架下设计面向节能、节水、减排等目标的政策组合，应用TIMES-EWN综合优化模型模拟得到不同政策组合下2010-2035年能源与水资源技术选择和潜力、碳排放、污染物排放，能源生产的水利用和水生产的能源消耗等，获得能-水系统的可持续发展路径，提出实现减缓和适应气候变化的能-水系统协同优化的政策建议。

在气候变化与环境污染的叠加压力下，能-水系统的协同优化成为保障能源转型、水资源可持续利用的关键。面向绿色高质量发展的国家重大需求，研究团队利用多学科交叉的理论和方法，从全生命周期视角解析了能源系统和水资源系统相互间的复杂关系和影响规律；开展了“能-水-碳-污染物”多资源环境要素的协同治理机制研究；从协同视角，基于自底向上的TIMES模型、自顶向下的CGE模型等，构建了多资源环境要素治理下的能源系统集成模型，以电力、交通等高耗能部门为例，探索了与中国国情相适应的区域能源转型路径和政策体系。. 创新性成果包括：1）获得了不同时段、不同区域的能-水关系数据清单，以及表征能源供需与水资源生产消耗间关系的关键参数；2）形成了多资源环境要素协同治理下的资源节约-污染减排责任划分新思路；3）提出了一套面向水资源持续利用、适应气候变化和大气污染防治的“政策设计-模拟-评估”的政策研究方法。. 研究团队在Nature Climate Change, One Earth, Water Research, Energy Economics, Energy Policy, Journal of Environmental Management等期刊发表论文20余篇，1篇入选ESI高被引论文；成果得到PNAS, Nature子刊等国际顶级期刊，以及美国科学院院士、欧洲科学院院士等多位知名学者团队的正面引用和评价；并得到今日头条、环球时报等十余家国内外机构媒体报导。提交咨政建议6项，得到生态环境部部长等领导肯定性批示，并以《人民日报》内参形式发送至中办、国办。培养博士研究生5人、硕士研究生4人，其中已毕业博士生3名，全部入职985高校。