关键基础设施攻防博弈的系统动态行为理论研究

The function protection for Critical Infrastructures (CIs) against external threats has been recognized a worldwide imprative issue, while it seems that the classical methods of reliability and risk analysis fail to provide the proper instruments of analysis. The three dimentions dynamic corresponding relationships between external threats, protection resources distribution and perfromance of CIs Which is the key to get insight to this issue was largely unexplored in precious research. This research make an effort on quantifying and analysis the three dimentions dynamic corresponding relationships by gaming theory framwork embedded computer simulation. The main reserarch contents include:.1) to develop an integrate modeling framwork for the attack-protection gaming analysis based on the analysis specturm which is formed by categorizing the action of attack and protection respectively into three grades according to the freedom degree of decision variables;.2) to design a bilevel evolve algorithm embedded Mente-Carlo simulation process to simulate the attack-protection gaming; .3) to induce the dynamic corresponding realtionships and make sensitive analysis between the typology parameters of CIs, the stategies of attack and protection, and the proformance of CIs by the case simulation data, then to identify the pathway of feasible freedom degrading strategies of decision varaibles in the time-bounded situation of attack-protecction gaming, and to construct the dynamic behavior theory of CIs attack-protection gaming. .This research can provide decision making theory and tools which integrate vanidity, roubustness and agility for critical infrastructure protection, which is a breakthrough in the traditonal analysis pattern which focuses on the two dimentions realtionships between attack and CIs performance with a fixed freedom degree of attack or presume protection is a constant。

外部威胁下关键基础设施服务的保障问题已成为当前世界各国急需解决的现实问题，而传统的可靠性以及风险分析方法难以为此提供有效支撑，且现有的研究尚未形成对这一问题核心- - 外部威胁、保护资源分配与基础设施系统服务水平之间三元动态对应关系的真正探讨。本研究主张通过博弈论的框架和嵌套的仿真分析来形成三元动态关系定量化表述和探讨。主要内容包括：①将攻击和保护行为按自由度各自划分为三个等级，来形成一个统一连续的博弈分析谱系和建模框架；②通过双层演化算法嵌套蒙特卡洛模拟来对攻防博弈模型进行仿真分析；③通过实例仿真，总结归纳关键基础设施拓扑参数、攻防行为和系统整体服务能力之间的对应关系和敏感性关系，反向追寻攻防博弈分析的有效降维分析路径，并初步构建关键基础设施攻防博弈的系统动态行为理论。该研究突破了以往个案式的二元关系(攻击-失效)探讨模式，可为关键基础设施保护提供兼顾有效性、鲁棒性和敏捷性的决策理论和方法。

自然灾害与智能攻击等外部威胁下关键基础设施服务的保障问题已成为当前世界各国急需解决的现实问题，而传统的可靠性以及风险分析方法难以为此提供有效支撑。本项研究运用博弈论的框架和嵌套的仿真分析对“外部威胁-保护资源分配-基础设施系统服务水平”之间的三元动态对应关系进行了建模和实例仿真，对关键基础设施攻防博弈的系统动态行为进行了初步的理论化。主要包括：①构建了基于有限理性网络流重分布均衡判别准则的网络绩效测量方法；②构建了关键基础设施攻防博弈的建模框架；③分确定性攻击后果和随机性攻击后果建立了离散型基础设施攻防博弈模型和网络型基础设施攻防博弈模型；④提出了启发式双向剪枝算法和蒙特卡洛双层嵌套演化算法；⑤对中国教育和科研计算机骨干网络、华盛顿定点服务供应设施网络和中国西气东输石油天然气网络进行了攻防博弈仿真分析；⑥通过仿真分析得到的三元动态对应关系初步构建了关键基础设施攻防博弈的系统动态行为理论。研究成果丰富和发展了关键基础设施保护的研究理论体系，提供了外部威胁下关键基础设施系统脆弱性风险分析与保护资源分配的系统方法，可以为国家基础设施系统的减灾防灾、应急管理、反恐资源的分配，以及下一代鲁棒型基础设施的设计提供理论借鉴和决策支持。