利率市场化视角下金融发展、货币政策对网络借贷的影响研究

At present, under the background of deepening the reform of China's financial market and marketizing interest rate liberalization, as an effective complement to traditional finance, the healthy development of the P2P lending has a bearing on the final smooth realization of the supply-side reform of micro-finance, the inclusiveness of finance and the marketization of interest rates. Therefore, under the background of the interest rates marketization, this project is focused on P2P lending from the perspectives of the financial environment and monetary policy. The main contents are as follows: (1) Based on the characteristic of information intermediary in P2P lending, this part constructs a theoretical model based on bilateral market and information economics to explore the impact of information intermediary on search efficiency, transaction cost and equilibrium lending rate. (2) Based on the complementary mechanism of traditional finance and P2P lending, this part examines the impact of financial development level and regional informationization on the participation rate and participating cost of P2P lending. (3) This part uses macro-level data to explore the transmission mechanism of monetary policy shocks to private lending and analyzes the time-varying nature of the linkage mechanism between P2P lending and offline private lending. (4) From the perspective of macro-prudence, this part investigates the fluctuation and spillover effects of monetary policy on two private lending types, the volatile and transmitting mechanism and the dynamic evolution mechanism between two private lending types.

当前正值我国金融市场深化改革、利率市场化稳步推进之际，网络借贷作为传统金融的有效补充，其健康发展关系到微金融的供给侧改革、金融普惠性以及利率市场化等目标的最终顺利实现。由此本课题在利率市场化的背景下，从金融环境、货币政策传导等视角研究网络借贷的相关问题。研究内容如下：（一）基于网络借贷的信息中介特性，借助于双边市场和信息经济学理论，构建理论模型以探究信息中介特性对于搜寻效率、交易成本以及均衡借贷利率的影响；（二）基于传统金融与网络借贷的互补机制，检验金融发展水平、区域信息化差异对网络借贷参与率和参与成本的影响；（三）利用宏观层面数据探讨货币政策冲击对民间借贷的传导机制，并分析网络借贷与线下民间借贷间的联动机制及时变性；（四）从宏观审慎的视角考察货币政策对两类民间借贷的波动溢出效应、两类民间借贷之间的波动传染机制及其动态演化机制。

十九大报告指出：“深化金融体制改革，推动利率市场化进程，健全货币政策和宏观审慎政策双支柱调控框架，健全金融监管体系，守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线”。网络借贷依托全新的金融组织结构，充当市场参与者的信息中介，成为金融体系的重要组成部分。网络借贷的发展推进了利率市场化进程，但同时也加大了金融体系的系统性风险。由于平台运作不规范，违约事件不断发生，最终导致网络借贷平台逐渐消亡。基于此背景，本课题研究内容如下：（一）借助“人人贷”的微观借贷数据，构建了网络借贷、线下民间借贷与货币政策冲击的时变参数向量自回归模型，研究货币政策冲击对两类民间借贷的影响以及影响的时变性、非对称性，并进一步分析两类民间借贷之间的联动机制，最后基于金融中介理论和金融组织结构的动态演化来分析民间借贷的利率市场化路径。（二）随着微型金融机构覆盖率的提高，降低了中小企业融资的融资约束。以P2P网络借贷数据，考察本土微型金融机构的扩张是否影响网络借贷。（三）以网络借贷市场为研究对象，重点研究货币政策的变化将如何影响借款人的融资成功率和融资成本，以及是否会加大网络借贷的市场风险。（四）基于我国上市银行理财产品的微观数据，探究互联网理财对银行理财产品的冲击，即从微观视角阐释互联网理财产生的“鲶鱼效应”，并着重通过双重差分模型( DID) 评估金融科技监管带来的外部效应。研究结果发现：短期内货币政策能够对线下民间借贷和网络借贷利率产生影响，表明货币政策的利率传导渠道是有效的；微型金融机构与网络借贷之间存在替代效应，随着微型金融机构准入的改善，导致网络借贷违约风险增加；货币政策通过银行信贷渠道和机会成本渠道影响网络借贷市场的融资成本，货币政策的收紧将增加网络借贷市场的融资成本；互联网理财通过提高银行理财的预期收益率，加剧其高息揽“储”动机，即面对互联网理财带来的存款分流压力，银行会借道影子银行业务强化监管套利行为。