基于多尺度径流描述的梯级水电站多目标联合调控模型

The adaptability utilization of runoff is a complex multi-objective decision-making problem due to its tradeoffs between multi-objectives. Taking the conjunctive operation of cascade reservoirs basin as case study, the research results of the ecological environment projects as boundary conditions, this project aims to study the conjunctive operation model of multi-objective cascade reservoirs and its solving method with multidisciplinary studies, such as hydrological and meteorological forecast, theory of error analysis, coordination control theory, system analysis theory and so on. And this project will be carried out through the following four fundamental issues: Firstly, we will focus on the description of runoff forecast for different stages, and a three-stage runoff integration pattern, with current stage as stage 1, the mid-term numerical precipitation forecast for 3-10 days as stage 2, and the runoff categorical forecast for 10-day or a month as stage 3, will be carried out based on the available analysis of forecast information, moreover, the impact analysis of forecast errors on the security management of power generation is included. Secondly, conjunctive operation model of multi-objective cascade reservoirs is established. Thirdly, mutual feedback of multi-objectives and compensation mechanism between runoff and cascade reservoirs are studied to reduce the model dimensions in order to improve solving efficiency. Lastly, the conjunctive operation method of multi-objective cascade reservoirs for runoff adaptability utilization is proposed by the application research of the conjunctive operation of cascade reservoirs in the river source area of Hunjiang River basin and Dier Songhuajiang River basin .

径流利用目标之间存在竞争协同关系，是复杂的多目标决策问题。项目以梯级水电站群联合调控为背景，通过开展气象水文预报技术、误差分析理论、协调控制理论和系统工程学等多学科的交叉与融合，研究多尺度径流描述模型和梯级水电站群多目标联合调控模型及其求解方法。项目基于预报误差可利用性的探究，提出降雨径流预报或退水预报当前段（阶段1）、未来3-10d中期降雨数值预报段（阶段2）和旬（或月）尺度中期径流分级预报段（阶段3）等三段径流集成利用模式，建立多尺度的分段径流预报输入描述模型；项目还重点研究径流利用目标之间的互馈关系和水库群的库容补偿规律，提出建立基于多尺度径流描述的梯级水电站群多目标联合调控模型及降维建模求解方法，以提高模型求解效率。项目开展研究主要以浑江梯级水电站群和丰满-红石-白山水电站群为工程背景，以期取得的一般性理论成果对其他梯级水电站群研究具有借鉴意义。

项目针对水资源供需矛盾突出问题，以HH流域和HJ流域的D水库、HR水库、HL水库和TP水库组成跨流域水库群为工程背景，开展了基于多尺度径流描述的梯级水电站多目标联合调控研究，以提高洪水资源利用率。取得主要成果如下：.（1）年内不同阶段径流预报模型及其成果耦合利用模式。通过分析CMA、NCEP、ECMWF等多个机构的集合预报产品，认为利用单一时间尺度的降雨预报信息进行水库调度，难以同时兼顾防洪安全与兴利蓄水。但分析结果可知，一场降雨时间过程上预报结果可能不理想，但预报总量上具有可利用价值。因此，提出了非汛期、汛期和退水三个径流预报段的信息集成利用模式以来指导调度决策，解决了如何应用预报信息，形成与水库调度决策模型相匹配的径流输入问题。对于预报大量级，利用量级的下限指导防洪预报调度，提高防洪能力；对于预报小量级，利用其上限信息开展兴利调度，增加洪水资源利用量。.（2）水库群间的径流和库容补偿规律挖掘。通过供水水库来水规律和受水水库来水规律分析，认为两流域年际与年内的丰枯同步概率较高，其年内与5~10月份入库径流丰枯同步概率分别为90%、84%。因此，可以利用调度的关键时段来进行大伙房跨流域引水工程供水联合调度的降维，可以将受水水库引水调度和供水梯级水库群发电调度分开优化的方式，降低模型求解复杂程度，然后在引水约束的条件下，开展联合调度，提高整个系统运行决策效率。.（3）跨流域水库群多目标联合调控模型及规则。项目通过对比分析单库预报调度、多源信息的HJ梯级水库群多目标调度优化、基于引水关键期径流预报信息的优化调度和基于引水决策策略的HJ梯级水库群发电调度四种调度方式优化结果。结果表明，考虑预报信息的跨流域引水和供水联合调度，使整个系统的水资源利用效率有了较大的提高，HJ梯级水库群多年平均发电量提高了0.71×108 kw·h，约9.8 %；D水库多年平均引水量减少了150.8×106 m³，约9.8%，弃水量均减少了134×106 m³，约28.2%，且供水量及供水保证率均有所提高。