多重市场扭曲下中国低碳转型战略研究

Undoubtedly，multiple market distortions produce adverse impacts on market allocation efficiency, total productivity and sustainable development. Furthermore, it seems difficult to remove these distortions in the short term, because of their complicated sources. Thus, it is an unavoidable fact that the Chinese government has to encounter multiple market distortions, when developing low carbon policies. Currently, these market distortions produce adverse effects on energy-intensive sectors, thus hampering low-carbon development. However, the existing studies do not cover the following questions: How will multiple market distortions affect the performance of low-carbon policy options? How will China develop the low-carbon transition strategies after incorporating multiple market distortions? To answer the above questions, this project begins with assessing the levels of sustainable development after considering multiple market distortions. The purpose is to find out the underlining operating rules. Then, the project develops CGE models after incorporating multiple market distortions, assesses the impacts of multiple market distortions on low-carbon policy instruments, and investigates how to improve the performance. Finally, this project considers how to develop the low-carbon strategies, from the perspective of sustainable development. This study is of significant theoretical contributions, because it considers the impacts of multiple market distortions on the performance of low carbon policy instruments, and aims to reveal the underlining operating rules of multiple market distortions. Furthermore, it is of considerable contributions to the policy-makers, because it offers various striking policy options, capable of providing quantitative assessment.

毋庸置疑，多重市场扭曲，侵蚀市场配置效率，降低全要素生产率，危及可持续发展。并且，市场扭曲成因错综复杂，短期难以完全消除，成为中国低碳转型无法回避的现实国情。当前，中国业已形成的高耗能偏向型市场扭曲，极不利于实现低碳发展目标。然而，现有关于低碳发展的研究尚未回答下列问题：多重市场扭曲如何影响低碳政策绩效？在多重市场扭曲下，中国如何优化低碳转型战略？针对上述问题，本项目首先从多个维度测度中国可持续发展水平，考察市场扭曲造成的效率损失及影响机理；其次，开发含多重市场扭曲的CGE模型，定量评估多重市场扭曲对低碳政策绩效的影响，考察市场扭曲造成的绩效损失及影响机理；最后，在可持续发展视角下，构建以绩效为核心的低碳转型战略。本项目拟揭示多重市场扭曲对低碳政策的影响机理，有助于深化低碳经济理论，具有重要的理论价值；同时提供具有可控性、可量化、可操作性的低碳转型工具，具有极强的现实意义和应用价值。

本项目基本上按照原先拟定的研究计划执行，采用了CGE（可计算一般均衡）模型和DEA（数据包络分析）模型等研究方法，考察如何在市场扭曲下构建中国低碳转型战略及可持续发展战略。主要研究内容如下：第一，构建了包含市场扭曲的CGE理论模型，考察市场扭曲对低碳政策绩效的影响，探究其影响机理及其驱动因素。第二，基于CGE模型，考察中国低碳转型战略的绩效及其影响因素，提出优化政策工具的政策建议。第三，构建了一系列DEA模型，从不同维度测度中国二氧化碳排放效率、能源利用效率以及可持续发展系统综合效率，考察市场扭曲造成的效率损失及其影响机理。最后，项目关注经济增长、环境保护和健康维护之间的关系，考察了不同省份可持续发展系统的综合效率及其差异原因，探讨如何促进经济社会的可持续发展；考察了发电与输电之间的关系、不同省份电力行业在各个阶段的效率及其差异，探讨如何促进电力行业可持续发展。通过上述研究，本项目得出下列有意义的研究结论和政策建议：发电和输电是密不可分的两个阶段，综合考虑这两个阶段的关系，有助于提升电力系统的综合效率；经济发展、环境保护和健康维护是关系紧密的三个子系统，深入研究其相互关系，可以为制定可持续发展战略提供更多依据；技术进步是促进经济社会可持续发展的重要途径，因此中国应该通过采取措施鼓励环境保护技术创新，鼓励效率落后决策单元（省份、城市或企业）采取技术“追赶战略”，进而提升资源利用效率和可持续发展水平；技术不平等是制约可持续发展的重要因素，对此，中国应该构建要素、产品统一大市场，促进劳动力、能源等要素自由流动，促进技术传播，进而提升经济社会的可持续发展水平。