矿井工作面煤与瓦斯突出动态预测理论与关键技术研究

Coal and gas outburst in mine working face is one of the most momentous disasters occuring during excavation in coal mine, the prediction for coal and gas outburst in mine working face is a hot topic collectively focused by industry and academia. Because coal and gas outburst in mine working face has the feature of occurrence, nonlinearity, multiplicity for impact factors and uncertainty for impact factors, however the existing prediction technologies for coal and gas outburst in mine working face have some shortcomings in the field of prediction accuracy and prediction timeliness. Using multi-type monitoring data reflecting impact factors of coal and gas outburst, this project studies dynamic prediction theory and key technology for coal and gas outburst in mine working face with dynamic and accurate prediction as the goal. The main research content includes: the dynamic feature extraction for coal and gas outburst disaster, the feature selection of prediction based on rock engineering system for coal and gas outburst in mine working face, the dynamic model building and validation of prediction based on case-based reasoning for coal and gas outburst in mine working face. All results of this project can realize space prediction and provide the theory and method for predicting coal and gas outburst, can deepen and enrich the theory and method for predicting coal and gas outburst, which is helpful for reducing disasters, improving production safety level and keeping the production of coal increasing stably in coal mines.

矿井工作面煤与瓦斯突出是矿井采掘过程中频繁发生的严重自然灾害之一，工作面煤与瓦斯突出预测问题成为学术界和工业界共同关注的研究热点。由于工作面煤与瓦斯突出具有突发性、非线性以及影响因素多样性和不确定性等复杂特征，现有矿井工作面煤与瓦斯突出预测技术在预测的准确性和时效性上存在不足。本项目利用反映煤与瓦斯突出影响因素的多种监测数据，以实现对矿井工作面煤与瓦斯突出准确和动态预测为目的，进行矿井工作面煤与瓦斯突出的动态预测理论与关键技术研究，具体研究内容包括：煤与瓦斯突出灾害的动态特征提取、基于岩石工程系统理论的煤与瓦斯突出预测的特征选择以及基于案例推理的煤与瓦斯突出动态预测模型构建与验证。本项目研究成果将深化和丰富已有的煤与瓦斯突出预测的理论与方法，对减少矿井工作面煤与瓦斯突出灾害、提高矿井生产安全水平和保持煤炭产量稳定持续增长具有重要意义。

实现矿井工作面煤与瓦斯突出准确和动态预测对于有效防治煤与瓦斯突出灾害尤为重要。针对现有矿井工作面煤与瓦斯突出预测技术在预测的准确性和时效性上存在的不足，本项目充分利用反映煤与瓦斯突出影响因素的多种监测数据，进行矿井工作面煤与瓦斯突出的动态预测理论与关键技术研究，具体研究煤与瓦斯突出灾害的动态特征提取、基于岩石工程系统理论的煤与瓦斯突出预测的特征选择以及基于案例推理的煤与瓦斯突出动态预测模型构建与验证，取得了预期的研究成果。本项目研究成果将深化和丰富已有的煤与瓦斯突出预测的理论与方法，对减少矿井工作面煤与瓦斯突出灾害、提高矿井生产安全水平和保持煤炭产量稳定持续增长具有重要意义。