大规模退货和资金约束下供应链中断管理研究

The large-scale return not only causes supply chain disruption, such as production disruption, demand disruption, but also causes a large number of capital expenditures, which makes the capital constraints become one of the main challenges in the process of dealing with business interruption. Considering different solutions to capital constraints, this project will study supply chain disruption caused by large-scale return. The purpose is to reduce the supply chain risk and loss. Based on different mechanisms of the large-scale return caused by non quality defects and quality defects, the complex features of disruption risk caused by large-scale return, capital constraints, production or demand recovery are captured. Considering using the cooperation and trade relationship and outside resources, such as insurance, bank, to solve the capital constraint problems which exist in disruption management process, mathematical models are established to first explore the problems of supply chain disruption caused by large-scale return which is due to non quality defects, then to study the disruption problems under the scenario in which the quality defects lead to large-scale return, finally based on which, to study the disruption problems when the horizontal competition is introduced. The difficulty is the finding of transfer rule of disruption risk cursed by large-scale return, the capture of the impacts of large-scale return on production and/or demand resume. Hope the study can enrich supply chain disruption theory and approach, and offer some theoretical basis to solutions to the disruption problems under the environment of the large-scale return and capital constraints.

大规模退货不仅造成生产中断、需求中断等供应链中断问题，而且造成大量资金支出，使得资金约束成为企业中断应对过程中面临的主要挑战之一。本项目考虑不同的资金约束解决策略，拟对大规模退货造成的供应链中断问题进行研究，目的是有效降低供应链中断风险和损失。在分析非质量缺陷和质量缺陷引起大规模退货不同作用机理基础上，刻画大规模退货造成的中断风险、资金约束、生产或需求恢复等复杂特征，考虑利用供应链上下游关系、保险、银行等资源解决中断管理中资金缺乏问题，构建数学优化模型，首先研究非质量缺陷造成大规模退货的供应链中断预防和应对问题，然后开展产品质量缺陷导致大规模退货的供应链中断问题相关研究，最后进一步将横向竞争引入中断管理中。难点在于大规模退货造成中断风险的传递规律、大规模退货对生产和需求恢复影响的刻画等。期望研究成果能够为实践中大规模退货和资金约束的供应链中断问题的应对提供决策参考，同时丰富供应链中断理论。

本项目主要针对大规模退货和资金约束的供应链中断问题进行研究，从中断风险预防和应对两个视角，开展预防性投资、产能恢复、激励和购买保险等几个方面的研究。采用数学优化、博弈论和最优控制，比较全面系统的对供应链中断风险管理进行了研究。主要研究工作和成果如下：.第一是产能恢复情景下事前预防策略和购买保险方面的研究。主要研究不同情景下制造商和零售商的预防性投资决策和保险购买决策，以及制造商和零售商之间的博弈、协调和合同设计问题，给出了策略适用需要满足的条件。帮助企业理解事前预防性投资和事后产能恢复的关系，提高保险购买和预防性投资之间关系的认识。.第二是上下游激励情景下事前预防策略和购买保险方面的研究。主要研究预防性投资成本分摊策略下制造商预防性投资和事后产能恢复决策以及产能恢复成本分摊策略下的成本分摊比例决策时间问题。最后，研究了保险购买和成本分摊策略之间的关系以及制造商和零售商的保险购买策略选择问题。本部分研究对于供应链和企业开展有效的供应链中断风险管理提供了科学的参考依据，有助于提高企业对购买保险和运营策略关系的认识，进而提高供应中断风险管理的水平。.第三是质量信息不对称、融资策略等相关研究。主要针对质量信息信号传递以及双渠道背景下的供应链融资策略选择的问题展开研究。.开展本课题研究三年来，实际完成学术论文12篇，已经发表（录用）学术论文8篇，SCI/SSCI检索论文6篇，EI检索论文1篇。另外，还有部分成果在陆续整理、投稿或修改中。