大气污染区域联防联控目标分解机制和政策评估研究

The targets decomposition of jointly prevention and control (JPC) is an important issue in the atmospheric prevention and control work. Correctly measuring the atmospheric environmental capacity (AEC) and designing the corresponding decomposition mechanism are of great significance to the long-term control of regional JPC of air pollution in China under the constraint of the total control. The existing research has not fully considered regional and industry heterogeneity in terms of target decomposition mechanism and policy evaluation. This project takes Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta as research objects, focusing on the research theme of JPC of atmosphere pollution, analyzing the decomposition mechanism of AEC targets and policy evaluation. Firstly, the AEC is preliminarily estimated according to the large-scale regional comprehensive method, and the regional and industrial differences of AEC are analyzed. Secondly, the existing directional distance function method is extended, and a directional distance function which considers both efficiency and fairness as well as time substitution is proposed and applied to the decomposition of AEC targets. On this basis, the regional decomposition and industrial decomposition of AEC in three key regions of China are carried out. Thirdly, the implementation effect of regional JPC is evaluated by using spatial difference-in-difference. Finally, combined with the above conclusions, the targets decomposition mechanism and emission reduction policy system of joint prevention and control of air pollution are constructed. The research results will enrich the theory of environmental policy and provide scientific basis for optimizing the policy tools for coordinated control of regional air pollution.

区域联防联控目标分解是大气防治工作中的重要议题。正确测度大气环境容量和设计相应分解机制，对总量控制约束下中国大气污染区域联防联控的长效治理具有重大意义。现有研究在目标分解机制和政策评估方面尚未充分考虑区域和行业异质性，本项目以京津冀、长三角和珠三角地区为研究对象，聚焦于大气污染联防联控的研究主题，力求剖析大气环境容量目标分解机制和政策评估。首先，根据大尺度区域综合方法初步测算大气环境容量，并解析大气环境容量的区域和行业差异；其次，提出同时兼顾效率与公平以及时间替代性的拓展方向性距离函数并将其运用于大气环境容量目标分解中，对中国三大重点区域的大气环境容量进行区域分解和行业分解；再其次，利用空间双重差分方法评价区域联防联控的实施效果；最后，结合上述结论，构建大气污染联防联控目标分解机制和减排政策体系。研究成果将丰富环境政策理论，为优化区域大气污染协同治理政策工具提供科学依据。

区域联防联控目标分解是大气防治工作中的重要议题。正确测度大气环境容量和设计相应分解机制，对总量控制约束下中国大气污染区域联防联控的长效治理具有重大意义。现有研究在目标分解机制和政策评估方面尚未充分考虑区域和行业异质性，本项目以京津冀、长三角和珠三角地区为研究对象，聚焦于大气污染联防联控的研究主题，力求剖析大气环境容量目标分解机制和政策评估。.本项目从大气污染联防联控的视角切入，对中国区域绿色发展进行全面系统而深入地研究。在现有文献基础上，项目负责人探讨了大气污染联防联控目标分解的理论内涵，兼顾效率与公平、异质性技术、跨期可比和全面识别等问题，提出更全面准确的数据包络分析模型以分解大气环境容量和测算效率与生产率，深入考察提升效率与生产率的机制与机理，根据实证结论，提出了大气环境容量约束下提升效率与生产率的若干对策建议。.项目负责人通过手工采集中国251个地级及以上城市2003-2020年单位GDP能耗（万元GDP能耗），用于估算中国城市能源消耗和二氧化碳排放，这是数据包络分析方法中最关键的投入和产出变量。.本项目的研究成果对于推动重点区域的大气污染防治和优化区域大气污染协同治理政策工具以及贯彻落实《大气十条》具有十分重大的现实意义。此外，根据实证结果提出有利于区域联防联控和协同治理的相关政策启示，对中国探索一条具有中国特色的大气污染区域联防联控环境政策之路具有全局意义。