基于互动生态补偿机制的不确定性水资源管理方法研究

In this research, an integrated water resources management system will be developed based on an ecological-compensation model at the watershed scale. Firstly, a multi-level, multi-layer, and interactive ecological compensation model will be advanced through the introduction of fuzzy sets theory and interval analysis into conventional ecological valuation and compensation methods. Then, the proposed ecological compensation model will be combined with a number of uncertain analysis approaches (such as fuzzy superiority-inferiority analysis, fuzzy-stochastic boundary analysis, and fuzzy-stochastic robust analysis) to form an integrated water resources management system under multiple uncertainties. The developed system will then be applied to a typical watershed in north China, i.e., Baiyandian watershed, to demonstrate its applicability and effectiveness. This research has the following innovations: (a) development of a multi-level, multi-layer, and interactive ecological-compensation model, facilitating the reflection of interests of multiple stakeholders and the enhancement of applicability and public acceptance degree over water related issues, (b) through incorporating the proposed ecological compensation model, uncertainty analysis approaches, water demand forecasting model in a general framework to form an integrated water resources management system under multiple uncertainties, which could handle uncertain information and their interactions over temporal and spatial scales within the context of watershed. It can also successfully transfer uncertain information include those in the process of determining ecological compensation values to modeling formulation, solution methods, and the obtained results, and (c) the developed system will be used for solving real-world water resources management problems and thus make contribution to theoretical and practical communities of relevant research areas.

本研究将在流域尺度上，探索基于生态补偿机制的水资源优化配置模式。将通过模糊数学、区间分析等方法，提出多级、多层次交互式生态补偿机制；由之耦合多种不确定性方法，开发多重不确定条件下流域水资源综合管理规划方法体系；将已开发的规划方法，用于实际水资源管理，建立流域不确定性水资源管理体系。本项目将在以下方面有所创新：（1）提出不确定性多级、多层次交互式生态补偿机制，反映多个利益攸关方的偏好，提高生态补偿模式的可操作性和公众接受度；（2）耦合生态补偿机制，建立一套适应流域特点的多重不确定性水资源综合管理模型体系，有效地在时间、空间上充分考虑水资源管理系统中的多重不确定因素以及它们之间的复杂互动关系。同时，将包括生态补偿在内的多重不确定性信息直接反映到管理规划模型和决策过程中；（3）将已开发的规划方法，用于解决实际的水资源管理难题，建立具有我国特色的不确定性水资源综合管理和生态保护方法体系。

本项目在水资源管理系统复杂性辨识的基础上，采取系统分析、公众参与和数学建模等手段，探索了兼顾生态需水和生态破坏补偿的水资源管理和流域综合管理方法，进行了方法创新、开展了实证研究。项目提出了复合不确定条件下的系统分析新方法，并且建立了不确定性条件下考虑生态需水和生态破坏补偿的水资源综合管理方法和模型体系。成果能反映多个利益攸关方的诉求，提高流域或区域水资源优化配置、水污染控制和经济发展等策略的可操作性和公众接受度；能有效地在时间和空间上考虑水资源管理系统各组分的复杂互动关系，并反映包括生态需水及其调节和补偿在内的多重不确定性信息；同时，将水资源管理不确定性、多目标和非线性等特征融入到管理规划模型和决策过程中，形成适应我国特点的不确定性水资源综合管理和生态保护方法体系。