博弈视阈下农民工市民化诱导机理研究

The new urbanization, which is people-oriented, enjoys a sustained dynamic to stimulate potential domestic demand. And migrant workers' citizenization is the key to promote the development of urbanization. However, some problems have emerged recently, such as: emphasizing the speed of urbanization but neglecting the quality of it, the instability of migrant workers' employment and unevenness of basic public service etc. Fully respecting the willingness of migrant workers and orderly advancing three-dimensional transformation (the geographical transfer from rural to urban, the profession transfer from agricultural to non-agricultural, the identity transfer from migrant worker to citizen) are essential to the steady development of the new urbanization. In this paper, we intend to use some methods like Game Theory, Growth Curve, Entropy Method, SEM and Ordered Logit to investigate migrant workers' citizenization. On the basis of citizenization progress measurement and citizenization willingness quantification, we construct a citizenization decision-making model from the perspective of Game Theory to reveal the mechanism of the urbanization ability and willingness. Then, we examine the citizenization decision-making progress and design the inducing mechanism of migrant workers' citizenization. This project will make up the deficiency of current researches on the inducing mechanism of citizenization that are conducted on the basis of Game Theory. Also, the result of this study is expected to enrich the theory of migrant workers' citizenization, and expand the application of Game Theory, so as to provide significant reference to government's decision-making concerning the implementation of "four modernizations synchronization" strategy.

新型城镇化具有创造潜在内需的持续动力，其核心是以人为本，而农民工市民化是推进城镇化发展的关键。然而现阶段出现了"重城市化速度、轻城市化质量"、"农民工就业不稳定"、"基本公共服务难均等化"等问题。充分尊重农民工的市民化意愿，有序推进农民工完成市民化的三维转变（从农村到城镇的地域转移、从农业到非农产业的职业转换、从农民工到市民的身份转变）事关新型城镇化的稳步推进。本研究拟运用博弈论、成长曲线、熵权法、SEM和Ordered Logit等方法，在测度市民化进程、量化市民化意愿的基础上，基于博弈视阈构建市民化决策模型，揭示市民化能力和愿望对市民化的作用机理，探讨市民化的决策过程，最终设计出农民工市民化的诱导机制。本项目将弥补目前从博弈视阈下研究市民化诱导机理的不足，研究成果预计将丰富农民工市民化理论，并拓展博弈论的运用领域，为政府 "四化同步"重大战略实施提供重要的决策支持。

新型城镇化具有创造潜在内需的持续动力，其核心是以人为本，而农民工市民化是推进城镇化发展的关键。然而现阶段出现了"重城市化速度、轻城市化质量"、"农民工就业不稳定"、"基本公共服务难均等化"等问题。充分尊重农民工的市民化意愿，有序推进农民工完成市民化的三维转变（从农村到城镇的地域转移、从农业到非农产业的职业转换、从农民工到市民的身份转变）事关新型城镇化的稳步推进。本研究拟运用博弈论、成长曲线、熵权法、SEM和Ordered Logit等方法，在测度市民化进程、量化市民化意愿的基础上，基于博弈视阈构建市民化决策模型，揭示市民化能力和愿望对市民化的作用机理，探讨市民化的决策过程，最终设计出农民工市民化的诱导机制。本项目将弥补目前从博弈视阈下研究市民化诱导机理的不足，研究成果预计将丰富农民工市民化理论，并拓展博弈论的运用领域，为政府 "四化同步"重大战略实施提供重要的决策支持。