基于时序仿真计及需求侧响应不确定性的微电网综合资源规划

Existing studies in microgrid planning meet power balance generally based on primitive load, not considering the impact of demand responses, which may choose a larger microsource capacity for the short-term maximum load. A new integrated resources planning considering demand responses under uncertainty based on timing simulation in microgrids is proposed. On acquiring characters of demand responses, direct load control, interruptible load are treated equally with supply-side resources and embedded into integrated resources planning model in microgrids. Demand responses help to cut the peak load, improve the utilization of microsource capacity and achieve the minimal total cost of microgrid system. The study is divided into three parts. They are modeling of integrated resource planning considering demand responses and timing simulation with level of detail, robust optimization considering DLC uncertainty based on (W, S) norm uncertain sets and robust optimization considering Interruptible Load N-k "Check" based on scenario sets, establishment of comprehensive evaluation index system. In the background of electric power reform, the demand-side resources get more emphasis. The idea of taking specific load acts in conjunction with microgrid planning is a beneficial exploration for microgrid planning theory. The research work also provides more references for other planning studies based on operational simulation in microgrid, active distribution network and energy internet. The project has strong academic significance and application value.

现有微电网规划研究一般以系统原始负荷作为电力电量平衡的基础，未考虑运行阶段需求侧响应对负荷时序特性的影响，易导致为满足短时最大负荷而配置微源容量偏大的问题。本课题研究一种新的基于时序仿真计及需求侧响应不确定性的微电网综合资源规划方法，将直接负荷控制、可中断负荷嵌入微电网规划模型，采用鲁棒优化处理需求侧响应不确定性，同等对待供应侧、需求侧资源，实现微电网系统社会总成本最小。研究重点：微电网综合资源规划整体建模及多细节层次时序仿真方法、基于（W，S）范数不确定集的考虑DLC受控负荷不确定性鲁棒优化和基于场景集考虑可中断负荷N-k“校验”的鲁棒优化、微电网综合资源规划评价体系。随着电力体制改革深化、负荷侧资源受到越来越多重视，这种考虑运行阶段负荷主动行为的规划方法，是对微电网规划理论的有益探索，亦可为主动配电网和能源互联网中开展更多基于运行时序仿真的规划研究提供借鉴，具有较强科学意义和应用价值。

微电网是协调风电、光伏等多种分布式电源、储能以及区域负荷的能源组织结构，随着系统中可控电源比例降低，挖掘需求侧控制潜力促进电力供需双向互动，成为提升电网安全保障和清洁能源消纳的选择。在微电网规划研究中考虑负荷侧的能动性，可以避免为满足短时最大负荷而配置微源容量偏大的问题，计及需求侧响应的不确定性，在汲取需求侧响应效益的同时可获得更为合理的规划方案。项目主要开展了以下三方面研究：1）建立计及直接负荷控制、可中断负荷等影响的微电网综合资源规划方法。把运行阶段负荷控制行为的数学建模融入基于时序仿真的微网综合资源规划模型中，将各种微源、原始负荷与多种需求侧响应时序模型耦合求解，优化资源配置，实现微电网系统社会总成本最优的目标。2）采用鲁棒优化理论解决受控负荷不确定性对微电网综合资源规划的影响。针对直接负荷控制受控负荷功率的不确定性，提出基于(w，s)-norm不确定集的计及直接负荷控制不确定性的鲁棒优化规划模型，提升鲁棒优化规划灵活性。针对可中断负荷控制的不确定性，将可中断负荷设想为一个“元件”，提出考虑可中断负荷控制N-k校验的鲁棒优化规划模型，进一步计及可中断用户响应概率影响，建立基于N-x不确定集的含可中断负荷鲁棒优化规划模型，使优化方案贴合实际需求。3）建立了微电网规划评价指标体系和基于改进ANP法的微电网综合资源规划评价新方法。算例分析验证了项目所提出的算法和模型的有效性。本项目的研究成果将为计及需求侧影响的微电网规划提供理论和方法支持。