基于可持续发展的城市水安全-水循环耦联系统综合评价及管理规划研究

This research analyzed and discussed the problem of water resource deficiency in our cities which is the main restriction for the sustainable development of social economy. The object of study focused on the comprehensive evaluation and management plan for urban water safety and water circulation system. To construct urban water safety and water cycle coupling system firstly and analyze the interaction and transformation between different parts of this system. Meanwhile, based on the analysis of water resources demand structure and change characteristics to forecast the water demand in cities scientifically, and then to set up a kind of evaluation index system and evaluation model for urban water safety and water cycle coupling system, and use grey fuzzy evaluation to solve. Secondly, management plan about urban water cycle system is discussed under the theory of the sustainable development. To construct uncertain programming model of urban water safety and water cycle coupling system, and adopt intelligent optimization algorithm for solution. Based on the perspective of sustainable development and considering the results of comprehensive evaluation and uncertain programming model to build a scientific development plan for urban water safety and water cycle coupling system. In this research, the interaction between urban water safety and water cycle coupling system will be announced theoretically, meanwhile, clarified the effect of long term planning and management of urban water cycle system under water safety situation. so it is very important to study the comprehensive evaluation of urban water security and water cycle system whether for theory or for practice.

本课题针对我国城市水资源匮乏制约社会经济可持续发展问题，拟将城市水安全及水循环系统综合评价及管理规划为研究对象，首先构建城市水安全-水循环耦联系统，研究系统内各子系统间的相互作用与转化机制；在分析城市水资源需求结构与变化特点的基础上，科学预测城市需水量，进而建立城市水安全-水循环耦联系统可持续发展的评价指标体系和评价模型，采用灰色模糊评价方法进行求解；同时探讨在可持续发展理论原则下的城市水循环系统管理规划问题，建立城市水安全-水循环耦联系统不确定规划模型，采用智能寻优算法进行求解；最终由上述综合评价结果和不确定规划模型计算结果，从可持续发展视角出发，制定科学的城市水安全-水循环耦联系统发展规划。课题预期将从理论上揭示城市水安全-水循环系统各影响因素相互作用机制，阐明水安全状况下城市水循环系统长期规划管理对策的影响规律。因此，本课题研究具有重要的理论意义与实践价值。

随着城市规模的不断扩大及水环境日益恶化，应以可持续发展的战略高度对城市水安全、水循环系统进行耦联分析、综合评价，并以此为基础进行发展规划。国内外对于此类问题的研究很重视，本课题针对可持续发展理论原则下的城市水安全-水循环耦联系统发展规划的若干问题进行了深入的研究。在系统分析城市水资源需求结构与变化特点的基础上，首先科学的预测城市需水量，综合运用以PSO-BP算法为主的多种算法对城市水安全-水循环系统需水量进行预测，并对各种预测方法进行了对比分析，为进行城市水安全-水循环系统规划提供了依据。创新性提出综合运用价值工程理论，制定城市水安全-水循环耦联系统的可持续发展性的评价指标体系。基于城市水安全-水循环耦联系统需水量的随机变化特性，构建了城市水安全-水循环耦联系统的不确定规划模型。采用蒙特卡罗方法模拟模型中的不确定变量，并将其嵌入改进的非支配排序遗传算法，对模型进行求解。本课题以天津市水安全-水循环耦联系统为实例，综合运用相关的理论知识与研究成果，对该规划城市水安全-水循环耦联系统进行了可持续发展性评价，并通过构建与求解不确定规划模型，为该城市的水系统的科学建设提供有效的决策支持。