时空效应视角下区域碳生产率趋同机制及减排策略研究

The carbon productivity of Chinese regions and their industrial sectors is not high, and there exist significant carbon productivity differences in the regions and their industrial sectors, which having a significant impact on achieving the goal of energy conservation and emission reduction of the country and its regions. This project identifies the carbon emission coefficients of primary energy and terminal energy of the Chinese provinces and their industrial sectors based on the investigation, estimates net carbon emissions of the provinces and their industries, and analyses the spatial-temporal evolution processes and their regular patterns, the convergence mechanisms and emission reduction cooperation strategies of carbon productivity from the perspective of spatial-temporal effects, simulates the heterogeneous and nonlinear influences of carbon tax and cap-and-trade policies for carbon emissions on carbon productivity of different provinces and their industrial sectors. Theoretically, the project develops the theoretical framework of carbon productivity research of multi-regions and multi-industries from the perspective of spatial-temporal effects, and enriches and develops the low carbon economics theory. Methodologically and technically, combined with numerical simulation and empirical analysis of observation data, the project develops measuring and calculating methods of carbon emission coefficients and carbon productivity, makes innovations on simulation methods of nonlinear, varying parameters and heterogeneity. Practically, the project puts forward the carbon productivity convergence reduction strategies and policy suggestions for improving the carbon productivity, and facilitate the state and local governments making target-oriented emission reduction goals and tasks specifically according to the practices, and puts the energy saving and emission reduction policies into practice in the district level and at the industry level, and eventually provides the decision-support grounds for emission reduction goals and cross-regional cooperation mechanisms of all the regions and their industries.

中国区域及产业部门的碳生产率不高，区际及产业间的差异明显，显著影响着国家和地区能否实现节能减排的目标。通过调研确定省域及其产业部门的一次能源和终端能源二氧化碳排放系数，测算估计净碳排放量及全要素碳生产率，从时空效应视角分析省域及产业部门碳生产率的时空演化过程与规律、趋同机制与减排合作策略，模拟碳税和碳排放权交易政策对不同省域及产业部门碳生产率趋同的异质性非线性影响；理论上，发展时空视角下的多区域-多部门碳生产率研究理论框架，丰富和发展低碳经济学理论；方法技术上，提出碳生产率趋同的减排策略和政策建议，将数值模拟与观察数据经验分析有机结合起来，发展碳排放系数与碳生产率测算方法，创新地提出非线性变参数异质性模拟方法；实践应用上，可为国家和地方政府根据不同实践有针对性地制定减排目标和任务，将节能减排政策落实到区域和产业层面，最终为各省域及产业的减排目标设定与跨地区减排合作机制建立提供决策支持依据。

中国区域及工业部门的能源强度、碳生产率区际及行业差异明显，对国家和地区能否实现节能减排目标意义重大。本项目在对区域碳排放和减排路径前沿理论进行综述研究的基础上，测算了我国30个省域及39个工业行业、地级市工业能源强度、碳排放量，进行了时空演变分析；同时采用同时能纳入时空效应的空间面板、非线性变参数异质性空间计量经济学模型，从时空效应视角分析估计了省域及工业行业部门及地级市工业的全要素碳生产率及其影响因素，模拟研究了碳税对我国省域工业碳生产率的作用及影响机制。研究发现：（1）引入空间效应的碳排放研究弥补了没有考虑邻近区域溢出效应的不足，区域碳排放存在空间溢出效应；（2）我国省域碳排放不存在绝对趋同，但存在明显的异质性条件趋同；碳排放存在总体发散，局部收敛的特征，不同区域范围都具有绝对β收敛和条件β收敛的趋势，其驱动因素存在差异；（3）经济增长、城镇化率、产业结构和国际贸易是碳排放增加的主要因素，产业结构合理化与高级化均对碳减排起到积极影响；（4）碳税对我国省域工业碳生产率促进作用不明显，表现出了不显著的微弱负影响，需要通过碳税制度设计、资源税制度改革和能源价格改革等措施增强其在节能减排及提高碳生产率中的作用，分地区有针对性落实碳税政策，大力发展空间差异化的绿色发展碳金融业务；（5）进一步加强技术进步对降低碳排放的作用，不同影响因素对东部、中部和西部区域的碳排放作用效应不同，应根据碳生产率趋同机制及碳排放的空间联动机制，采取有区别的特色化、差异化减排策略，加强区域碳减排合作。.本项目研究对从时空效应角度进一步完善低碳经济发展的相关理论，为实现中国区域碳减排理论与方法提供借鉴和指导；本研究结果不仅可支持国家政府部门在低碳经济背景下制定恰当的减排政策，也能为不同区域实现减排目标提供一定的启示，符合我国经济发展规划和长远利益，对推动区域经济低碳发展和实现中国经济整体低碳转型具有重要的意义。