基于风险视角的移动支付用户采纳及创新扩散机理研究

The rising of mobile commerce creates huge opportunities for mobile payment, and the application of 3rd generation mobile telecommunication, near-field wireless telecommunication technology, and the popularity of intelligent terminals provide the technology conditions for its development, then how to promote the adoption and diffusion of users has been an urgent headache facing telecommunication operators and service providers. The significant difference between mobile payment and other mobile services is its risk characteristic, therefore, from the perspective of risk, the adoption of individual user and the diffusion of user group should be studied in order to discover the crucial factors, especially the risk factor, influencing the adoption of users, and the forces, paths, and principles of user diffusion. Firstly, the adoption of business users and consumer users will be empirically tested respectively. Secondly, the coordination and stimulation strategies for business users and consumer users mutually participation in mobile payment will be developed. And then, the model based on multi-agent system will be constructed to simulate users' micro-interaction in order to present the macro-principles of user diffusion. Finally, the strategies for promoting users' adoption and diffusion will be proposed. This project will further enrich adoption theories, perceived risk theories, and innovation diffusion theories, and meet the shortages in the researches of business adoption and user diffusion of mobile payment. In application field, the conclusions of the research may provide theory directions for the development of mobile payment.

移动商务兴起为移动支付发展创造了机遇，3G网络、近距离无线通信技术的应用以及智能终端的普及为其发展提供了技术条件，怎样促进移动支付用户采纳及扩散成为亟待解决的问题。移动支付不同于其他移动服务的显著特点在于其风险性，因此，本项目基于风险视角对用户个体层面的采纳行为和用户群体层面的互动及扩散机理进行研究，以揭示影响用户采纳移动支付的关键因素，特别是风险因素的作用机理，以及用户扩散的内外动因、路径及规律。本项目分别对移动支付的商户和消费者用户采纳行为进行实证分析；构建商户和消费者用户共同参与移动支付的协调及激励机制；将基于多智能体系统的模型用于模拟移动支付用户微观互动行为，以此涌现出宏观的用户扩散规律；最后提出促进用户普遍接受和扩散的策略。本研究将进一步完善用户采纳理论、感知风险理论，丰富创新扩散理论，弥补在移动支付商户采纳及用户群扩散研究方面的不足；在实践上为我国移动支付业的发展提供理论指导。

本项目从微观层面分别对使用移动支付的商户和消费者的采纳行为进行了实证研究；从用户群体层面对商户、消费者使用移动支付进行了博弈分析，基于多智能体对消费者使用移动支付的创新扩散行为进行了模拟；另外，还增加了对于O2O电商的消费者采纳进行了实证研究。. 研究结果揭示了影响商户及消费者两类用户采纳移动支付的因素及影响机理，此外也对商家、消费者选择支付模式的策略进行了优化及博弈过程进行了分析，而对消费者群体采纳扩散行为的模拟则从动态的角度分析了感知风险的作用，对其扩散机理进行了深入挖掘。以感知风险的来源、形成、影响为主线，从微观到宏观，从截面数据分析到动态智能体模拟，全面诠释了感知风险对接受及创新扩散行为的影响。. 项目不仅完善了商户采纳移动支付理论，拓展了消费者感知风险理论，而且将个体采纳的实证研究与不同类型群体之间的博弈合作机制及群体扩散机制的研究相结合，这些对于后续创新接受及扩散行为的研究极具参考意义。在O2O电商模式采纳研究方面，则检验了商户线下存在、顾客体验对核心采纳变量的影响，这具有一定的理论意义。实践方面，对于移动支付服务提供商、用户、行业主管部门理解这种新型支付模式及O2O电商模式提供理论参考，对于该服务模式的普遍接受及推广有重要现实意义。