煤电能源供应链风险递展动因分析及风险控制模拟模型研究

The energy supply chain of coal and power consists of coal production, coal transportation, power generation, power transmission, and power utilization. The risk derived sources of balance development between all links of the energy supply chain are analyzed, including coal transportation risk caused by power generation configuration, coal production risk caused by power supply structure, coal conservation risk of power generation caused by scheduling approach to power generation, the investment risk of different power types caused by genetating price policy, the investment risk of coal caused by the installed capacity proportion of new energy generation, the risk of power generation structure and power purchasing cost of grid enterprise caused by tariff policy of new energy generation, coal conservation risk of power generation caused by electricity tariff for consumer, the risk of coal-fired power generation capacity caused by environmental constraints, generating cost risk caused by coal price and coal transportation price, and so on. Risk Driver Models are constructed by using the theory of System Dynamics, ISM, and Bayesian Network, etc.Risk Transference and Expansion Mechanisms on investment, cost, scale structure and price between all links of energy supply chain are researched, and Mechanism Reaction Models are constructed.Risk control policy simulation models for energy supply chain are built, including investment cycle relational model, relational model of the amount of investment, scale structure relational model, price relational model,sustainable energy generating, etc.

分析煤炭生产、煤炭运输、发电、输电到用电的煤电能源供应链各个环节之间协调发展的风险衍生源,包括：电源布局对煤炭运输的风险影响，电源结构对煤炭生产的风险影响，发电调度政策对发电节煤的风险影响，电价政策对发电类型投资的风险影响，新能源发电比例对煤炭投资的风险影响，新能源发电价格政策对发电结构、电网企业购电成本的风险影响，用户电价对于发电节煤的风险影响，环境约束对燃煤发电能力的风险影响，煤炭价格与煤运价格对发电成本的风险影响等，并通过系统动力学、ISM、贝叶斯网络等构建风险动因模型；研究煤炭生产、煤运、发电、输电到用电之间的投资风险递展机理、价格风险递展机理、规模结构风险递展机理、价格风险递展机理等，并构建机理反映模型；构建煤炭生产、煤运、发电、供电到用电的供应链风险控制模拟模型，包括煤炭生产、煤运、发电、输电之间投资周期关系模型、规模结构关系模型、价格联动关系模型、可再生能源发电等。

本课题根据申请书中相关研究内容及预期目标，以“煤炭生产--煤炭运输--发电--输电--用电”能源供应链为主线，以能源供应持续安全、节能减排为目标，以风险识别、风险链接、风险递展、风险度量、风险控制为关键点，研究煤电能源供应链的总体协调发展问题。为了深入研究煤电能源供应链风险递展动因及风险控制问题，本课题分层次，对煤电能源供应链由浅入深的展开了研究，具体内容有:1) 辨识煤电能源供应链煤炭各环节的投资风险、规模风险、市场结构风险、竞争结构风险、成本结构风险、环境政策风险、供需平衡风险、价格风险等，利用系统动力学构建风险指标体系之间的作用与反馈图、因果关系图。2) 利用ISM模型、大系统递阶分解模型等，确立能源供应链的风险指标体系之间的传递路径、递展关系、层级关系、递阶关系。3) 研究电能源供应链煤炭各环节规模不匹配风险传递、投资链风险传递、建设时间节点不匹配风险传递、价格链风险传递的机理，构建风险递展分析模型、风险度量模型。4) 构建煤电能源供应链每个环节的风险控制模型、整个链条的总体多级风险控制模型。5) 根据调研实际数据，对风险分析模型、风险度量模型、风险递展计算模型、风险控制模型进行仿真模拟6) 根据模拟结果，对煤电能源供应链风险控制有关政策进行解读、分析和形成建议。 另一方面，该课题研究成果主要有:该课题完成了10万左右的关于煤电能源供应链风险递展动因分析及风险控制模拟模型的研究报告。在课题研究历程中，共发表学术论文57篇，其中SCI检索论文18篇，国内权威期刊30篇。在课题研究阶段，共培养32名学生 ，其中，在站博士后2人，博士12人，其中9名已顺利完成学业，在读硕士9人，毕业硕士9人。